Quick reminder that tomorrow’s FOMC meeting won’t change the script: inflate, expand credit, repeat. It’s all they know. Mises (1949): “All governments are firmly committed to the policy of low interest rates, credit expansion, and inflation. When the unavoidable aftermath of these short-term policies appears, they know only of one remedy—to go on in inflationary ventures.”

Here’s why you chill on daily moves: return scales with time, volatility with √time. At 40% return & vol, bitcoins’s daily return is 0.09% vs 2.09% vol. Noise exceeds signal by more than 20x.

Quick PSA as silver is rising. I like silver. I do. But remember that it is weak money. Annual supply growth: Silver: 25% (S2F = 4) Gold: 1.7% (S2F = 60) Bitcoin: 0.9%, going to 0% (S2F = 110, going to ∞)

Thomas Paine (1786): The founders knew. “Money is Money, and Paper is Paper. All the invention of man cannot make them otherwise.” “The evils of paper-money have no end.”

Quick reminder that Oracle had a 40% daily omega candle last week. If $ORCL can do it, so can bitcoin. Always be ready for a shock ⚡️

Bitcoin measured in gold is at extreme fear right now. Catching up with the power law trend implies $210k BTC. Today. @apsk32 if you were here I’d zap you some sats 🫡

Gottfried von Haberler (1976): Inflation accelerates. “It is well known that every prolonged inflation tends to become cumulative and to accelerate. To provide the same stimulus, inflation must accelerate.”

Hash rate looking 🔥 Price will follow.

Hearing more and more concerned whispers about the gold rally lately, like the one from Macro below. Seems overdone. Gold fair value is well in excess of $10k and I think even $20-30k is not outlandish at all. We’ve got a long way to go.

Paging all TradFi investors. Bitcoin returns are highly idiosyncratic (~70% against a standard risk model). Beta is only a small component. Don’t get fooled by “levered QQQ” tales. You *must* own this asset.

Jefferson (1788): He knew. “Paper is poverty, it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.”

Gold looking 👌 Bitcoin usually follows.

We’ve known about it for a long time… Juan de Mariana (1605, School of Salamanca): “As much as is taken away from the coin in weight or quality, so much accrues to the benefit of the prince. Now I see that metals can change their value without work and without furnaces.”

This place is so much better than X. Exclusive country club vs. overstuffed buffet restaurant. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Sennholz (1985): Keep it simple. Hold bitcoin. Zoom out. “The paper standard is self-destructive.”

ETF demand is insatiable. Now holding 1.3M BTC ($150B). Great overview from @HODL15Capital

Mises (1949): Crack-up booms are fiat’s final act. “But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper.”

Fritz Machlup (1931): Credit expansion *always* leaks into assets. Bitcoin will continue to benefit greatly. “As soon as credit expansion sets in, practically every credit becomes a stock-exchange credit. Whoever receives additional funds makes use of them in such a way that stock-exchange quotations are strengthened. It is therefore absurd to believe that one can expand credit effectively while at the same time preventing its use on the stock exchange.” “Wherever credit is created beyond the amount hoarded, the additional means of payment will press on the stock exchange. They can create no new productive capacity; they can only raise the prices of securities already outstanding.”

Carl Menger (1871): Bitcoin is the most saleable good. It will be global money. “It is the most saleable commodities which primitive men gradually learned to use as a common medium of exchange; and, out of the several commodities which were found to be pre-eminently saleable, the one which was found to be the most saleable of all eventually became money.”