20th Century cycle theory
inspired by business cycle
based on agricultural & commodity cycles… noting roughly 8–11 year business swings & 16–20 year panic intervals
follow cyclical psychology, overvaluation, correction, recovery, euphoria… roughly every couple of decades
Benner’s chart has been surprisingly accurate… especially given it was drawn in the 1870s. It captures the recurring rhythm of boom & bust, though it should be read as a psychological map of cycles, not a literal forecast
If we follow it, the chart suggests:
• Next “hard times” (C): Around 2026–2033
• Next “panic” (A): Around 2035
• Next major bull peak (B): Before 2035… possibly the late 2020s
