#Bitcoin Why do I always emphasize that Bitcoin does not need to be predicted in the long term, but cannot be predicted in the short term?
Throughout my twelve years of working in Bitcoin, I witnessed many of my friends making a mistake over and over again. This mistake will haunt them for many years.
This error may not be what you think. This has nothing to do with self-custody or even investing in altcoins. This also has nothing to do with entering the market early enough. Many newbies are jealous of those who can buy Bitcoin for less than $10. But this is a reality that must be faced. Last week, this started happening again with the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. As the ETF gets approved and starts trading, the price of BTC surges to $49,000. It turned into a sell-off news event due to multiple factors, with the price falling to $41,000 before rebounding. In just 48 hours, people felt like they were on top of the world, and then fell into the deepest valley. The problem isn’t that the ETF didn’t immediately cause BTC’s price to surge to $100,000, nor that the price fell. The real problem is that people are too emotional about prices in the short term.
For those of you who have been in the Bitcoin market for quite some time, you may have heard of future Bitcoin price predictions that have now become legendary. The general consensus in the current bull market is that Bitcoin will break $100,000. This is very conservative. However, most expected it to go much further. Things get more interesting when you zoom out and look ahead. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes that Bitcoin could hit $1.5 million by 2030. Fascinatingly, she's not alone in this view. It doesn’t matter if Bitcoin reaches $1.5 million by 2030, that’s the question that too many people are stuck on.
Today, people worry about how to time the market perfectly and buy Bitcoin as cheaply as possible. They were either afraid of missing out when the price went parabolic to $49,000, or they were too scared to buy when the price hit $42,000. To them, this $7,000 price range is the difference between Bitcoin being in a full bull cycle or us being primed for more pain. This causes them to stop buying.
And for those of us who have fallen down the Bitcoin rabbit hole, we all believe in one thing. The price of Bitcoin will not only increase, but it will increase significantly. Even though ETFs have just been approved, we are still in the early stages of this market. The harsh truth is that if the price of Bitcoin reaches $500,000, or even exceeds $1 million. This means it doesn’t matter if you buy Bitcoin for $42,000, $49,000 or even $69,000.
Ultimately, we must remember this key fact. Bitcoin is still very cheap.
