Sid⚡️

Bitcoin is currently like a "young adult." It will still grow, but it won't do a 100x jump in a single year anymore. As it gets older, the speed of the gains slows down. Bitcoin is trading "excitement" for "stability".

Every signal, every data point, every macro shift keeps pointing in the same direction for Bitcoin. In a system where your currency quietly dissolves through inflation, Bitcoin is the one thing untouched by that decay. Once you truly understand what it represents, being aligned with Bitcoin stops feeling like a trade. Your conviction has to outlast the noise. Your vision has to outlast the volatility. Patience is the edge.

The combination of U.S. debt dynamics, political incentives, and existing global imbalances makes a significant U.S. dollar devaluation quite likely, and that this would push the world into a messy competitive devaluation environment. For countries like India, that means tough, complex policy choices on exchange rates, trade, and industrial strategy - not a calm world of stable currencies and gentle trade flows. This is my broad thesis for the entire decade - Political Instability & Fiscal Dominance

US currency war + Chinese excess capacity = a very tough external environment for India.

When things look rough, keeping a long view feels a little crazy, but it’s what keeps you going. Bitcoin is the same. Slow, steady belief in something built on patience, honesty, and freedom ends up paying off long after most people quit.

HOPE IS A GOOD THING, MAYBE, THE BEST OF THINGS. AND NO GOOD THING EVER DIES! BITCOIN IS A GOOD THING.

We’ve basically gone numb to the fact that people die on the roads every day. The only reason we tolerate it is because, so far, there hasn’t been a real alternative. Once software fully takes over driving, we’ll look back and realize how crazy it was to let humans control cars even though technology exists today. When software is driving, the difference will be so obvious that we’ll wonder why we didn’t push for it sooner. Right now there’s still some resistance, but in ten years it’ll be crystal clear that this was the only sensible direction.

In about 15 years, no one will be able to say, “I’m late because of traffic” or “There was an accident, so I couldn’t get to the meeting on time.” Once software is fully driving the machines, it’ll handle all the routing. When we hand control over to the system, it’ll take us from point A to point B with almost no delays because human error is basically removed. With software making the decisions, the error rate on the roads drops to near zero, and people get to their destinations way faster. In that world, it would almost feel criminal not to let software do the driving.

There’s a new wave of debate about capitalism and socialism. Younger people and some politicians are calling themselves socialists, and a lot of folks are worried about it. But I still think capitalism is the best system for progress, freedom, and creating real wealth. The problem is we’re not living in capitalism right now. People think we are, so they blame capitalism for everything that feels broken. But this isn’t capitalism. You can call it crony capitalism if you want. The core issue is that capitalism only works when capital is clear and not manipulated. Right now almost everything gets treated like capital. Short term treasuries, long term treasuries, currencies, whatever. There’s no clear definition. And when the thing that’s supposed to be capital(T Bills) keeps getting manipulated by politicians and central banks, the whole system gets distorted. For capitalism to work, we need a form of capital everyone recognizes and no one can mess with. Something you can store your economic energy in without worrying about political interference. Gold used to play that role, but gold became fractured and opaque. Countries don’t trust each other’s gold numbers anymore. There’s no real transparency. That’s why I think Bitcoin becomes the new base layer of capital. It’s transparent. No one can manipulate it. Anyone can verify it instantly. If Bitcoin becomes the foundation, banks can build credit on top of it, and we finally get something close to real capitalism again, because the base isn’t being tampered with. And if someone tries to manipulate money or interest rates, you’d see the signal right away in Bitcoin’s price. It becomes the bedrock. And capitalism only works when the bedrock is solid.

The most underrated thing right now is how fast the quality of life in the United States is going to decline. If you have the option to physically live somewhere else, the smartest move is to leave. And honestly, physical assets are at risk. A major “great taking” is coming in the next few years. You need to shift from physical to digital assets - there’s no real alternative. The sophisticated people and the smart money have already left.

Bitcoin isn’t an IQ test. It’s an ego test.

Unpopular opinion: Getting married in your early 20s is going to become fashionable again. It’ll be great for society, and it’ll feel normal to marry young and have a bunch of kids.

When I finally understood Bitcoin, I realized I was actually learning what time really is.

i believe in elites.

My big thesis on capital rotation is this: for most of history, the capital sat in the East - China, India, Southeast Asia. Those regions had the natural resources, the climate, the rivers, the knowledge, everything. That’s why explorers and traders kept sailing east, because that’s where the wealth was. Over a couple of centuries, that capital shifted to the West, first to Europe and then by the 1900s mostly to the United States and its allies. The West got two things right: fairness and rule of law. Add innovation, technology, life sciences, strong institutions, and trust, and it became the obvious place for capital to settle. Now that trust is breaking down. Institutions don’t feel as reliable, rule of law feels shaky, and the basic sense of fairness people assumed is fading. But that doesn’t mean capital naturally flows back to the East. People in the east don’t believe their systems are fair either, and they’re not. Power is concentrated, rule of law is weak, and equality & fairness is mostly missing. So capital has nowhere physical to go. The West isn’t working, the East isn’t working. That’s why I think the rotation now is into the internet itself. Cyberspace is egalitarian. Code is law. It doesn’t discriminate, it doesn’t care about race or power structures, and it’s secured by energy. That’s why I think the great rotation of capital is moving into digital space, into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been better. - SAB-121 rescinded - E.O. creating strategic BTC reserve - E.O. protecting the right to self-custody - Fed withdrawing supervisory guidance - OCC rescinding restrictive guidance - FDIC explicitly allowing banks to engage in BTC activities - Texas becomes first state to fund strategic BTC reserve - JPMorgan accepting BTC as collateral for loans - Hash rate crossed 1 Zh/s for the first time - Harvard and other endowments disclosed BTC exposure - Sovereign wealth funds disclosed BTC exposure - State pension funds disclosed BTC exposure - 11 nations now mine BTC with government resources - Public companies now hold more than 1 million BTC - Block enabled BTC payments to 4 million merchants Price dropped from $125k to $92k today. I am bullish is an understatement.

Money is moving: • from illiquid to liquid • from non-transparent to transparent • from physical to digital • from mass to speed of light • from high risk to low risk • from speculation to non-speculation • from real estate to Bitcoin

The character of an asset always reflects the character of its investors.

The way we measure value today, like with dollars, is flawed because of inflation and other factors. It’s hard to see the real change in goods over time. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and transparency, could be a better measure in the future. Over the long term, as adoption grows, the volatility could drop, giving a clearer way to see the true value of things like bananas over decades.