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Capitium Monetra
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More questions than answers... Sobre dinero, más allá de números. Entre stocks, crypto y otras ideas.
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CapitMonet 3 weeks ago
Sub diversis speciebus, signis tantum et non rebus, latent res eximiae. image
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CapitMonet 3 weeks ago
The AI trade didn't break today. Expectations did. Broadcom's results were strong by almost any historical standard. Revenue grew, AI demand remains real, and the business continues to execute. The problem wasn't the company. The problem was the price investors had already paid for perfection. When an entire sector becomes crowded, stocks stop being valued on fundamentals and start being valued on whether reality can exceed the market's imagination. Today's selloff is a reminder: A great company and a great investment are not always the same thing. #AI $AVGO
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CapitMonet 3 weeks ago
Will Bitcoin go below $60k? Maybe. The market doesn't owe anyone a clean bottom. But that's not the interesting question. The interesting question is whether anything fundamental changes if it does. Right now, the market is obsessed with downside targets. That's usually what markets do near fear, not euphoria. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom. If your thesis depends on perfectly timing every correction, you're trading price. If your thesis depends on the long-term monetization of a scarce asset, you're evaluating value. $60k, $70k, or $80k will matter far less in a few years than whether your thesis was right. The real question isn't whether BTC can trade below $60k. It's whether you'd still want to own it if it does. #Bitcoin
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CapitMonet 3 weeks ago
A laser attack was found against TROPIC01, the open secure element behind the Trezor Safe 7. Some will see this as a failure of open hardware. I'd argue it's evidence that open auditing works. Tropic Square handed the chip to Ledger's Donjon team for evaluation — a direct competitor. Under laboratory conditions, the Donjon team decapsulated the chip and used a precision 1064 nm laser to bypass firmware signature verification. The vulnerability was discovered, disclosed, and documented publicly. The underlying issue requires a new silicon revision to fully address, not just a firmware update. Closed hardware may have fewer reported flaws. That doesn't necessarily mean fewer flaws. It often means fewer eyes — and less visibility when something breaks. #BTC #Security #Trezor
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CapitMonet 3 weeks ago
Strategy selling 32 BTC isn't a story about 32 BTC. It's a story about cash flow. The narrative was simple: issue debt, issue equity, buy Bitcoin, never sell. The sale was immaterial (0.0038% of holdings), but it revealed something important: Obligations are paid in cash, not conviction. Strategy's model works as long as Bitcoin appreciates faster than the cost of its capital structure. Debt, preferred dividends, and dilution are all manageable when the asset outgrows the liabilities. The real risk was never a 20% drawdown. It's a world where BTC goes sideways for years while financing costs remain. Strategy isn't a Ponzi. It owns a real asset. The question is whether future BTC appreciation can continue to outrun a growing stack of liabilities. 32 BTC doesn't change the thesis. But it does change the conversation. #BTC #Strategy
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
Bitcoin normalized awful privacy for 15 years. Reusing addresses was absurd: “Here’s my payment address — and my transaction history.” Now Sparrow brings Silent Payments to the real world. One public payment address. Infinite unique receive addresses. No address reuse. No extra coordination. No, it’s not Monero. But it closes one of Bitcoin’s privacy leaks. Quietly one of the most meaningful BTC UX/privacy upgrades in years. #BTC #Privacy #SparrowWallet #SilentPayments image
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
"Pour l'homme courageux, chance et malchance sont comme sa main droite et sa main gauche. Il tire parti de l'une comme de l'autre." - Sainte Catherine de Sienne.
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
SpaceX going public wouldn’t be just another IPO. It would be the market listing a narrative. Not rockets. Not satellites. A thesis: That Musk can industrialize space. That Starlink becomes global infrastructure. That Starship works at scale. That orbital infrastructure becomes a legitimate asset class. That’s not traditional equity investing. That’s venture speculation with public market liquidity. #SpaceX #IPO
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
$NVDA just reminded everyone that earnings and price action are not the same thing. Monster quarter. Guidance still absurd. Buybacks. Cash machine. And the stock? Meh. Because once a trade gets this crowded, “excellent” becomes the baseline. The market wasn’t asking: “Is NVIDIA executing?” It was asking: “Is reality even more insane than our most bullish assumptions?” Apparently not enough. Fundamentals: excellent. Price action: perfection was already priced in. $NVDA #AI #Markets
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
GitHub is investigating unauthorized access to its internal repositories. A threat actor linked to the Shai-Hulud / TeamPCP supply-chain campaign claims to be selling GitHub internal source code and org data. GitHub says it currently has no evidence of impact to customer enterprises, organizations, or repositories — but monitoring is ongoing. The risk isn’t just leaked code. It’s the developer supply chain: repo secrets, cloud creds, SSH keys, CI/CD tokens, Actions workflows, and lateral movement across trusted infrastructure. No proven link to CVE-2026-3854, but the timing matters: GitHub just patched a critical RCE class bug weeks ago. If you depend on GitHub, audit logs, rotate high-risk secrets, and stop treating private repos as a secrets manager. Centralized dev infrastructure is a single point of failure. #Cybersecurity #GitHub #InfoSec #OPSEC
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
"God provides the wind, man must raise the sail." St. Augustine of Hippo image
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
"A man who is not on fire is nothing: he is ridiculous, he is two-dimensional. He must be on fire even if he does make a fool of himself. A flame must burn somewhere, otherwise no light shines; there is no warmth, nothing" -C.G. Jung.
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
May started risk-on. AI, earnings, semis, ETF flows. Then macro returned: Oil > $100. Sticky inflation. Higher yields. Less Fed optionality. The rally isn’t dead... it’s being repriced. AI still carries the upside. Energy caps the multiple. Bitcoin holds structure, but isn’t leading yet. This isn’t panic. It’s the market asking one question: Can risk-on survive $100 oil? #Markets #Macro #Oil #AI #Bitcoin
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
Your Android VPN is only as trustworthy as Android itself. Mullvad flagged a system-level Android bug affecting VPN reliability after app updates. Google acknowledged it. No immediate fix. Best case: no internet. Worse case: traffic outside the tunnel if your kill switch isn’t strict. Important distinction: This isn’t a Mullvad failure. It’s a reminder of the trust model. A VPN app can’t guarantee privacy if the OS controls the networking stack. Privacy isn’t a subscription. It’s architecture. #Privacy #VPN #Android #Mullvad #OpSec
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
"The supreme aristocrat is not the feudal lord in his castle but the contemplative monk in his cell." - Nicolás Gómez Dávila.
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CapitMonet 1 month ago
The market wants risk-on. Oil is saying: not yet. WTI has been violently repricing the U.S.–Iran/Hormuz risk. Brent is back above $100. This is no longer just "geopolitical tension." It's an active war premium with a binary outcome baked in. AI and semis are still carrying equities. Earnings are holding the tape together. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed last week at record highs anyway. The market has heard the macro argument and shrugged. But the ceiling is real: higher oil → stickier inflation → higher yields → Fed paralysis. The part bears miss: the same binary cuts both ways. A credible deal reopens Hormuz, crude can drop violently (Brent already fell ~15% in one session on ceasefire headlines.) No panic. Just repricing with an escape hatch that could open on a single diplomatic headline. #Markets #Macro #Oil