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npub15wcv...qy0q
npub15wcv...qy0q
Adding 2% bitcoin to a classic 60/40 portfolio vastly improves performance. But most investors are too focused on Sharpe-ratio (based on st.deviation). They see that Sharpe declines a bit. Calmar-ratio (based on drawdown) is a better metric and it improves a lot! Using Calmar: ditching stocks and bonds entirely and invest 4% in BTC while holding 96% in cash, yields superior investment performance. It will take years for large traditional investors to change their risk perspective from st.deviation to drawdown and their risk/return perspective from Sharpe to Calmar. Perspective matters. image
Thinking of udating and reviewing these 8 charts monthly on youtube, as a short market overview.
After March 2024 halving, bitcoin will be the scarcest asset in the world. image
If bitcoin price jumped from $0 to $20k during 1% adoption .. then what will further adoption from 1% to 50% do with bitcoin price? image
2024 halving will make bitcoin the scarcest asset in the world. Even if we wanted to price that in, we couldn't. image
S&P500 is my macro proxy because stock markets price in / anticipate all macro events (inflation, recession, central bank action, war etc) image
S&P500 is my macro proxy because stock markets price in / anticipate all macro events (inflation, recession, central bank action, war etc). More on S&P-BTC correlation here:
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