Ben Justman🍷's avatar
Ben Justman🍷
BenJustman@primal.net
npub153xm...ryu8
Owner/Winemaker at Peony Lane Wine Low Sulfite wine from the highest elevation vineyards in 🇺🇸 Governor's Cup Award Winner 2022, 2023, 2024
Ben Justman🍷's avatar
BenJustman 1 year ago
A small group of people can reshape an entire system. Nassim Taleb coined the term Intransigent Minority to describe the phenomenon. When the cost of acquiring that group is low, the rest of the population is indifferent, and that group is stubborn enough to stand on what they believe, the system bends. His go-to example is kosher food. Fewer than 0.5% of Americans follow kosher rules, yet a huge portion of the grocery store is certified. Observant Jews won’t touch non-kosher food, but most people don’t think twice about it. So if you run a factory, it’s easier to make everything kosher than split your product line. One group has strict requirements. The other is flexible. That’s enough to tip the entire system. I’m seeing something similar with bitcoin businesses. The pressure here isn’t negative or rooted in avoidance. It’s completely positive. What I do see is a sharp rise in demand for products and services from companies that accept bitcoin alongside the dollar. Whether bitcoiners use it as a medium of exchange or not, it’s clear that having that option is good for business. This pattern has been clear to me ever since bitcoiners started buying my wine, but my scale is small. Since then, I’ve watched everything from cottage producers to large ranching operations benefit from the same magnetic pull. Steak n’ Shake, with over 450 locations, is just the next evolution. If a bitcoiner is getting a burger, Steak n’ Shake just jumped to the top of their list. They’ve already gained the attention of a group that punches above its weight. Time will tell how much we impact their business. Bitcoiners’ impact doesn’t come from protest. It shows up as positive reinforcement. The Magnetic Minority rewards alignment and that reward is scaling. Taleb gave us the template. We’re writing our own story. image
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BenJustman 1 year ago
I thought wine was supposed to get more valuable with age. Everything in my cellar is losing value fast. Even as the bottles improve with age and each vintage gets more scarce, they lose value. Bitcoin is eating my lunch. image Just in the last month, my wine is down 26% and I don't see this stopping any time soon. Once I understood this dynamic, that my wine is going to be devalued in bitcoin terms forever, I had two choices: 1) Reinvest back into my business to grow faster than bitcoin. 2) Sell wine for bitcoin and let that grow for me In some ways I'm lucky that scaling up a winery is so hard. I age red wine for 2 years before I sell it and there's no real way to speed that process up. How could I possibly justify an attempt to outgrow bitcoin? My choice was easy. For CPG businesses that cycle inventory faster, the decision isn’t as clear. How do you make the case for bitcoin to someone beating its historical CAGR by reinvesting into their business? They're killing it, but long term, do they really expect to outpace bitcoin? The pressure to scale constantly disappeared when I realized I didn’t have to grow just to survive. Just putting some of your sales in bitcoin lets it do a lot of the growing for you. Growth is a fine goal, but chasing it just to stay afloat wears entrepreneurs down. They trade sleep, family-time, and sanity in the hopes that they can keep up. Bitcoin can carry the growth pressure so you don't have to. Build the business you actually want, and let bitcoin carry the rest.
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