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Merry Christmas 🎄

The GLD #Gold ETF, launched in 2004, marked the beginning of a nine-year bull run for gold. Remarkably, during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, gold posted a positive return of 5.8%, and in 2009, it rose by 24.3%, even as the stock market plummeted. In light of this, I anticipate a comparable trajectory for Bitcoin following its ETF launch in 2024. This suggests that even in the event of a recession in 2024, #Bitcoin could potentially yield positive returns.

I want to present a case for #Bitcoin 's performance in the next few years. Instead of the typical four-year cycle with a blow-off top followed by an extended bear market, I believe there's a good chance we'll see an eight-year bull run, followed by a long, uneventful bear market lasting several years without any catalysts. My reasoning is partly based on the Gold ETF launch in 2004. Gold experienced a remarkable nine-year bull run, followed by a three-year bear market, during which its value quadrupled. (See table below) A similar scenario might unfold for Bitcoin following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. We can anticipate continued year-over-year capital inflow from investors drawn to the world’s first asset with a finite supply. Consequently, Bitcoin's price has the potential to outperform Gold in its first nine years post-ETF. My rough estimate is that Bitcoin could achieve a 10x increase, compared to Gold's 4x, following its ETF moment. This prediction considers the escalating geopolitical issues, overwhelming debt, and central banks' pivot to lower rates to monetize debt. This is a quick analysis and my first long-form post. I'm working on a more detailed thesis for my fund.

Imagine, with a #Bitcoin  ETF, the majority of investors are just one phone call or one message away from allocating 1% of their portfolio to Bitcoin.

Each amended S-1 from BlackRock just increases the chances of the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETF on January 9-10.

Half way through Invent & Wander. I wander why so many companies have forgot cashflow per share is the most important metric to measure a success of a business.

Satoshi sends his regards.

There is no other investment opportunity better than #Bitcoin  in the next decade. More people are realizing this now. They are delaying to buy a house or a property.

Do you think central banks should own Bitcoin directly under their own custody or through a Bitcoin ETF? Remember the Fed was buying Bond ETF during Covid-Crisis? Most of us are over-underestimated the ETF effect once there is option on the market.

Kiplinger

The Fed Is Buying ETFs. Now What?

The Federal Reserve

X is down, but Nostr still alive.

Everyone who bought #Bitcoin  before the ETF should be able to retire and live a happy life.

Taiwan Election time.

What will happen to Bitcoin's price if demand increases 2x-10x while supply is cut in half? Obviously, the price is going to go higher.

Bitcoin ETFs will super charge the collateralization of #Bitcoin .

At least $50+ trillion of offshore and foreign capital will find its way to #Bitcoin  once the Bitcoin ETFs are available.

The advertising war on #Bitcoin ETFs has officially started even before they get approved. You can clearly see they are targeting boomers in this ad.

This may sound discouraging, but to Gen Z: The door is closing fast. Once a Bitcoin ETF is real, boomers with fiat wealth will flood into Bitcoin, making it impossible to buy one BTC with just a salary. Prepare accordingly.

Today, I met a wealthy boomer woman during a tea ceremony. Intrigued by #Bitcoin , she shared her experience with me. Although she had traded MSTR and GBTC for exposure, she hadn't delved into the spot market. I ask her why. Her reason was straightforward: The lack of time to set up an account and learn how to manage keys. This is why a #Bitcoin  ETF is transformative. It could forever change the landscape, making Bitcoin accessible to those who, like her, are searching for simplicity in getting exposure to Bitcoin. FYI The tea ceremony 🍵

The market will always find ways to distract you from holding #Bitcoin . You will see people posting fake gains, chart technicals, and hyping up new projects. These can make you feel like you're missing out. Consider this a test if you haven't been tested yet.