GM and happy Monday! #coffeestr

I usually jot down a few notes to share with everyone. Maybe Friday is a good day to go a little deeper. The next chapter of global politics is being written on the battlefields of Ukraine and the Middle East, trade politics between the US and China, AI, the debt in Washington, and probably another half dozen themes whose true impact we won’t truly feel before five to ten years from now. What isn’t yet clear is the title of this chapter, or at least the predominant theme or event that accelerates the world down a given path. Thinking about possible futures in this way predictably elicits another question; what was that theme or event that defined the ending chapter. There are a lot of candidates, but I believe that 9/11 was the event that led us to the world we inhabit today. In the spirit of transparency, I feel obliged to acknowledge that 9/11 was an intensely personal event for me. I grew up on Long Island, and among the many acquaintances of mine murdered that day are three people I grew up with quite closely. My professional life in the years following 9/11 made the experience all the more visceral. Distance has allowed me to see things more clearly. My thoughts on the actions the US undertook in the years following the attack have evolved, in some cases significantly, but my thinking about these events will always be colored by the deaths of people I remember vividly to this day. Endless States of Emergency The Biden administration’s recent announcement, “Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Persons Who Commit, Threaten to Commit, or Support Terrorism,” is emblematic of the erosion of governance that has plagued the years following 9/11. This order has roots in an executive order signed on 23 September 2001, just days after the attack. The continuation of this “national emergency” reveals how much the state has grown dependent on “emergency powers.” The nearly 1,000% increase in the use of sanctions by the Treasury Department since 9/11, an indulgence that laid the foundation for a slow but steady trend of de-dollarization, is but one consequence. And then there’s the Patriot Act…. Endless Wars and Regional Destabilization The 1979 Camp David Accords brought a modicum of stability to the Middle East, or at least served as the foundation for a new balance of power. Despite war between Iran and Iraq, civil war in Lebanon, the region’s center held firm until post-9/11 events challenged that stability. The first sprout of that instability was the US invasion of Iraq, leaving a vacuum that provided actors opposed to the status quo a stage on which to act out that opposition. This also laid a firm foundation for instability to spread following an act of desperation by a young Tunisian in December 2010. The Arab Spring and Civil Wars I’m open to discussion, but I believe US policy directly contributed to the chaos of the Arab Spring, the subsequent civil wars, migrations, and shifts of balance of power that persist to this day. Among the corner stones of regional stability was the US-Egypt relationship. Obama’s decision to publicly support the removal of Husni Mubarak – and hence the entire military establishment – from power caused irreparable harm to the relationship, now with that government functionally back in power. The decision to intervene militarily in Libya in a civil war that persists to this day kicked off an immigration crisis that has destabilized European politics. The decision to intervene – but not decisively – in the Syrian civil war ignited by the Arab Spring only exacerbated the immigration crisis in Europe while allowing ISIS to take root and flourish. Is That It? Well no. The Syrian civil war allowed Russia to gain a foothold in the region, gaining combat experience that would embolden them to invade Ukraine. US support for protest movements destabilized relationship with traditional allies, especially in the Gulf region. On September 10, 2001, would any of you have envisioned a Chinese port in the UAE? All of these, and not to minimize the immense human suffering, the broken men and women, and trillions of dollars wasted are all legacies of our response to the tragedy of 9/11. Lesson Learned? Not sure, but it was a tremendously costly chain of errors that we all need to consider as we decide how to address the challenges of this next chapter. But maybe a political consensus acknowledging that it was our own decisions that put us in the difficult position we find ourselves today would serve as the cathartic reset we need to thrive into the 21st century. Squishy thinking? Maybe, but when people ask me what bitcoin did for me, my response is always the same, “it cured my cynicism.” Really, it did. @TFTC @OPERATION BITCOIN @Lyn Alden

GM! Is there a decentralized version of Substack running on Nostr? #asknostr

Encrypted channels using #meshtastic - slick! Very excited to get started!

This referenced paper from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, along with the much discussed European Central Bank paper, has received an enormous amount of attention in Bitcoin circles – although I have yet to find any parallel attention being paid to it in tradfi media. That said, this paper was written for a reason, almost certainly a tasking received from Fed seniors to analyze the possible impact of bitcoin on Treasury markets. Anyone who has worked in government knows a lot of think pieces are written only to be shelved. But even those that are shelved represent some lines of thinking that motivated leadership to designate resources to a project. I am not an economist, and thus am not in any position to refute the very serious looking formulas the authors use to support their conclusion that a “legal prohibition against bitcoin can restore unique implementation of permanent primary deficits, and so can a tax on bitcoin at the rate -(r - g) > 0.” What I am in a position to quibble with, however, are the normative assumptions that underline their entire thesis. The foundation of the authors’ very scholarly sounding arguments are two assumptions; that bitcoin is “useless pieces of paper,” and that buyers of our debt, primarily among them foreign governments and financial institutions, won’t come to the same conclusion about this debt. As for the “useless pieces of paper,” the phrase belies not only a profound misunderstanding of what bitcoin is and how it works, but also a deep well of contempt for those who see value in it. Regarding foreign buyers, it seems the authors are content to trap US citizens and financial entities in a debt cycle knowing full well that large foreign entities have been reducing their exposure to Treasuries for some years now. They can’t force China to buy our debt, but they certainly compel you to use your retirement savings to do so. Strip away the fancy econometrics, and what you have is an apologetic piece of which the core intent is not ensuring Americans have the freedom and autonomy to choose their own paths to prosperity, but rather a blueprint for a subset of elites to keep all of us locked in a system that has made them wealthy at the expense of a large swath of our fellow citizens. @Lyn Alden @TFTC

I went down the #meshtastic rabbit hole last night. I might have found my next hobby.

I have found that feeling older, the realization that the hard miles are starting to catch up, is more revelatory than gradual. You don’t feel it day to day, but rather the feeling reveals itself through little everyday things that a few years back would have passed unnoticed, unremarkable quotidian events. I just had that similar experience as it concerns my aging parents. My mother, a prodigious if very durable habitual tumbler, broke her hip last week. Coming along nicely after surgery, but the effect on both her and my father has been one of those revelatory moments. But as I said, her durability is helping her to recover nicely. What I’m Watching Middle East – I’m not surprised we’ve yet to see publicized direct Israeli action against Iran in retaliation for the 01 October ballistic missile attack. Rather, as a I previously speculated, Israel continues to focus on denigration of Hamas and Hizballah, up until now Iran’s preferred proxies for kinetic activities to impact Israeli decision making. I still maintain that Israel will prioritize the destruction of both Hamas and Hizballah’s ability to conduct substantial offensive actions against Israel. I also believe they will continue a parallel effort to create a new paradigm in which both these actors are unable to restore their offensive capabilities through a grip on political power. Assuming Israel is able to achieve these goals, it raises important questions about how Iran might choose to protect its interests in a new such paradigm. Whereas the Huthis in Yemen can harass, they do not pose a significant military threat to Israel. So how will Iran react to losing its primary sources of leverage in the eastern Mediterranean? If under the previous paradigm Iran at least assessed it could limit direct Israeli threats to its security by building menacing proxies on Israel’s border, how will it respond to the loss of these proxies? Or the more fundamental question, how will it respond to a growing feeling of vulnerability? In my estimation, peace in Lebanon and Gaza might be the end of one chapter, but it presages a more threatening next chapter in which Iran feels compelled to accelerate its nuclear ambitions – with Israel coming that same conclusion. In other news…. Charles Hoskinson says Cardano will flip Bitcoin.🤔

X (formerly Twitter)

Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) on X

Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson: In a number of decades Cardano will flip Bitcoin and the majority of governments in the world will run on our in...

It feels like summer has finally surrendered in the DC area. Mornings are crisp, even chilly, and afternoon highs have been consistently below 80 degrees. Traffic is abysmal. Of course, this weather is synonymous with election season, a time that consumes the Beltway but one that most Americans simply grit their teeth and endure. What I’m watching: The Middle East – Thus far my thinking on this has been correct (jinx!). Up until now Israel has opted against high-profile retaliatory action against Iran following Iran’s ballistic missile attack on 01 October. This is not to say that Israel has not been conducting retaliatory actions, as they have recently demonstrated that have a deep bench of capabilities at their disposal. But not the much-predicted kinetic attack on Iranian infrastructure. As events unfold, I think Israel is looking to replicate the spirit of their Gaza operation in Lebanon against Hizballah. Decapitate it, cripple its ability to take the initiative militarily, and set the stage for an evolution of circumstances on the ground. The chattering classes in DC have also been floating the idea of a new paradigm in Lebanon. Ultimately, if Israel can defang Iran’s proxies in the region, the long-term effect will be greater than a potentially escalatory kinetic attack against energy infrastructure. Iran projects power through these proxies, their loss would be a significant blow. China – The discussion about China’s hesitancy to dump a hot dose of adrenaline into the financial system reflects the choices Xi has made regarding China’s development. The WSJ journal just today ran a story about the scope and scale of China’s espionage operations – clearly a priority unaffected by the overall economic slowdown. What is interesting to me is how these choices are affecting the next generation of CCP leaders who grew up with the assumption of prosperity. Xi might have crowned himself leader for life, but even that lofty title is ultimately finite. I’m on the fence as to whether an economically suffering China under Xi is more or less likely to take military action against Taiwan. But I am reasonably optimistic that these same economic challenges make the prospect of a reprioritization of market reforms in a post-Xi world a decent bet. What I’m Reading – The Fatal Conceit, Hayek.

Screw it. I’ve decided to become an MMTer of convenience. We’re now at a $1.8 trillion deficit for 2024 - so far. The line is blurry, but assuming we’ve crossed the threshold of no return, print away. Just keep my taxes low so I have more crappy dollars to trade for Bitcoin. What a tremendous failure of our leadership class. Plan accordingly.

Not sure what came over me. I still have an X account, mostly because many of the commentators I follow post exclusively on X. But I generally restrict my own posts to Nostr. That said, while sipping on some Compass Coffee Bitcoin Blend this morning, I nearly Apple paid my way into an X Premium subscription – the blue check! Eleven dollars, and with Apply pay, two thumb clicks while staring into the screen is all you need. Ultimately, I didn’t do it. Time to get writing again on Nostr. The summer kind of got away from me. Lots of happenings on the family front. There’s only so many hours in the day, and I’ve been making a more concerted effort to chop away at the pile of reading I’ve assigned myself. I’m also trying to be more balanced in what I read, making space for things other than Bitcoin books and the like. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly “normal,” probably time for me to do the same on the reading front. Things I’m watching – the Middle East. I don’t think the tit-for-tat is over yet, although I suspect the overall decibel level of these actions is unlikely to continue escalating. But should the parties continue up the ladder of escalation, what might accelerate that doom loop? Keep an eye on Turkey. If the fighting in Lebanon expands, might Turkey step in to create some kind of safe zone in parts of Lebanon? That would put two US allies in geographic proximity to one another eyeball to eyeball. Just my own red team thinking. And still aghast at what I’m reading about rescue operations in hurricane afflicted areas. The America I grew up in was better than this.

Lots of great used book stores in the Washington, DC area. But the best, IMHO, remains the Second Story warehouse in Rockville, MD. Open every day.