Kasjan - Nostr Hypermedia

On Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The Case Study of NAKA (NASDAQ: NAKA) Yesterday, one of the most prominent Bitcoin treasury companies, $NAKA (NASDAQ: NAKA), plummeted 55% 📉 . This amplified its dismal one-month performance to -80% and marked a staggering 97% decline from its peak on May 22, 2025. WHAT HAPPENED? 1️⃣ It began with an intensive marketing campaign, perfectly timed to capitalize on the "Bitcoin treasury companies" wave. 2️⃣ The stock price rose on very low volume before skyrocketing to over $30 per share in May 2025. There are unconfirmed allegations of wash trading—price manipulation by individuals connected to the company—which would have been straightforward to execute given the low volume-to-market-cap ratio at the time. 3️⃣ $NAKA sold a significant amount of equity (equivalent to over 80% of its fully diluted market cap) in mid-2025 at $1.12 USD per share. 4️⃣ Investors who acquired this equity at $1.12 were positioned for a massive 20x profit when the market price exceeded $20. Savvy investors hedged this enormous profit by shorting the stock. 5️⃣ Eventually, these shares began unlocking—allowing them to be sold on the open market—after 90 days, right around now. 6️⃣ The stock price collapsed, with the $1.12 level acting like a magnet pulling it downward. This has left many retail investors, who bought shares in the $10-30 range during the hype, feeling rug-pulled. However, if private equity holders are sitting on substantial profits relative to the current public stock price, there's a strong likelihood they'll take those gains, triggering market collapses. Several other Bitcoin treasury companies face similar large unlocks in the near future (e.g., as noted by @Pledditor on X regarding $ASST). You can try to make an extra buck on Bitcoin treasury companies, OR you could simply buy Bitcoin, hold it in self-custody, and relax. 🌈 Further Reading: 🔶 Who bought $NAKA private equity?, from @Pledditor:

X (formerly Twitter)

Pledditor (@Pledditor) on X

Names that stood out to me: Jameson Lopp: 1,340,000 shares of $NAKA Balaji Srinivasan: 273,038 shares of $NAKA David Bailey: 11,160,572 shares of ...

🔶 Great research from @bigmagicdao, from early June 2025:

X (formerly Twitter)

Molly (@bigmagicdao) on X

Naka’s PIPE investors got in at $1.12 with no lockup—455M shares. At $20, they’re sitting on a 20x. But with average daily volume around $2M,...

#BitcoinTreasury #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #Investing

Kasjan 11 months ago

Can stablecoin issuers save the US dollar? Andrew Tate claims that pushing Bitcoin to $1M could “save the dollar” by forcing stablecoin issuers to buy U.S. government debt. Let’s break down whether that idea holds up. 🟢 What are stablecoins? Stablecoins are digital dollars on blockchain rails, backed by real U.S. dollars or government debt. Two issuers dominate: Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Together they’ve issued nearly $250B, with around $200B parked in U.S. Treasuries. Tether alone is now among the top 20 holders of U.S. government debt. 🟢 Does the dollar even need saving? The dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, but the balance sheet is ugly. U.S. debt is 120%+ of GDP. Historically, crossing 130% often precedes default within a decade (Reinhart, Rogoff). In 2024, for the first time ever, the U.S. government spent more on interest than on the military. That’s a classic red flag for declining empires. So yes, the dollar is strong globally, but structurally fragile. 🟢 Bitcoin and stablecoins move together When Bitcoin rallies, stablecoin issuance explodes. Bigger BTC market cap → bigger positions, more collateral, more reserves. Today, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $2.2T, almost 10x the stablecoin market. If Bitcoin hit $1M, stablecoins could plausibly grow 10x too — to around $2.5T. That means perhaps $2T flowing into U.S. Treasuries. Massive. But here’s where Tate’s theory breaks down 👇 🟢 Three problems 🔶 Structural deficits 💸 In 2024 alone, the U.S. issued $2T of new debt. Even if stablecoins pumped overnight, that covers just one year of overspending. The last budget surplus was in 2001. The U.S. isn’t fixing its deficits — it’s doubling down. 🔶 Better yields elsewhere 💰 Stablecoins can earn 2–3x Treasury yields just by being lent out in Bitcoin markets — without taking price risk on Bitcoin itself. In bull runs, these rates have spiked to 25–50%. Faced with that, why would investors settle for 4% from Treasuries? 🔶 Bitcoin escape velocity 🚀 Pushing BTC to $1M risks unleashing it beyond anyone’s control. Suddenly, everyday people would find their net worth multiplied. Merchants would be incentivized to accept Bitcoin directly, kickstarting circular economies. At that point, Bitcoin stops “saving” the dollar and starts replacing it. 🟢 The takeaway Stablecoins delay the dollar’s reckoning by buying Treasuries in the short term. But they can’t save it. America’s problem isn’t a lack of buyers — it’s a lack of fiscal discipline. And the more Bitcoin grows, the more obvious that problem becomes.

Kasjan 0 years ago

From Declined Cards to Lightning Fast This week, I tried to buy a new internet domain. Normally I use SquareSpace (which took over Google Domains), and it always worked just fine. But this time? My payment didn’t go through. Strange, since I’ve been a customer for over two years. So I double-checked everything: • Card details? ✔ • Billing address? ✔ • Tried three different cards? ✔✔✔ Still nothing. All payments failed. The thing is, legacy payments aren’t just “you → merchant.” There are half a dozen middlemen who can block the transaction at any point: 1. Card issuer (e.g., WISE) 2. Network (e.g., Visa) 3. Payment processor (e.g., Square) 4. Merchant's bank (e.g., Chase) 5. Currency conversion provider 6. The merchant itself (e.g., SquareSpace) Some mismatch in your address, a suspicious flag, or a system hiccup—and you're locked out. After wasting far too much time and energy, I gave up and went to a different provider. One that accepted Bitcoin via Lightning Network. This time, I used a non-custodial Lightning wallet. ✅ No card issuer ✅ No Visa ✅ No bank Just me → the merchant. And it worked instantly. It felt like a small miracle. Or more precisely—a glimpse of the future. It left me with two big questions: 1. What do people without Bitcoin do in this situation? o Apply for another card and try again? o Switch providers until one works? o Or just give up on their idea altogether? 2. Is it just me—or are the wheels starting to fall off the fiat payments wagon? Picture unrelated. Or... is it?