🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪 SEC. RUBIO TO JOURNALIST: YOU WANT US TO INVADE FIVE BASES AT ONCE? THE U.S. GOT MADURO, BE HAPPY WITH THAT Sec. Rubio just got grilled by a reporter who wanted to know one thing: if this was really about taking down a narco-terrorist regime in Venezuela, why stop with just Maduro? Why leave the rest of his crew in power, including the Defense Minister, who has deep ties to Russia and a $15M bounty on his head? Why didn’t the U.S. land in more military bases, arrest the whole network, and shut it all down? Rubio didn’t back off, he defended the limits and called the op a historic win. "It is not easy to land helicopters in the middle of the largest military base in the country, kick down his door, grab him, and leave without losing any Americans. You're asking me why we didn’t do that in five other places at the same time? I mean, that’s absurd. This is one of the most daring, complicated, sophisticated missions this country has carried out in a very long time. An indicted drug trafficker who was not the legitimate president of Venezuela was arrested, and now faces justice in the U.S. court system. The others who were also indicted are still in place." Source: @RapidResponse47 , @SecRubio

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇻🇪 Crude oil prices fall following US capture of Nicolás Maduro.

🇮🇷 2 KEY IRANIAN CITIES IN REVOLT AS DEADLY PROTESTS SPREAD NATIONWIDE Word's buzzing that protesters have straight-up seized the city of Hamadán, while the holy hub of Qom. Just 150 clicks from Tehran, is mostly under rebel control, cornering the regime like never before. Reports confirm raging demos in both spots for days, with clashes killing at least 4 in Hamadán and a teen in Qom amid grenade blasts and live fire from security goons. Nationwide unrest hit Day 8, sparked by economic meltdown, rials tanking, inflation at 52%, food up 70%, spreading to 174 spots with 19+ dead, hundreds nabbed, and IRGC cracking down hard. State media and rights groups paint ongoing battles, not full wins yet. Source: @TRobinsonNewEra , Iran International, Al Jazeera, Hengaw

🇺🇸🇻🇪 "MADURO'S CAPTURE WAS CAREFULLY PLANNED BY THE U.S." U.S. General Ben Hodges confirmed the operation to capture Maduro was as seamlessly successful as it was because the U.S. bypassed every defence the Venezuelan military had, something which required months of preparation. "We know that there were cyber operations that were initiated to turn off power, to do things like that. In all of these operations, you'd do everything you could to blind the enemy, so air defence couldn't shoot back, they couldn't track. It was a combination of cyber and traditional jamming; they had such good intelligence that had been built up over the past couple of months. Given the nature of Venezuela and this government, I would not be surprised to learn, on the inside, there was help."

I have spent a lot of time talking shit at people with opinions on Venezuela's oil production potential, and how it's going to "RePLaCe CanADa". So here's my contribution -- how I see the cost of replacing Canadian crude with Venezuelan heavy. I think it's a nearly $1 trillion bill to get that done. I'm not sure who has a spare $1 trillion in their jeans. Venezuela's natural domestic consumption is ~1MMB/d, so to completely replace Canada and reach 3MMB/d of export capacity, the country needs to grow production to ~4MMB/d of production, a level they have never hit before. Exports never really exceeded more than ~1.2MMB/d. They have one main export terminal (Puerto José) capable of ~1.2MMB/d and other smaller terminals gets them to realistically, 1.7MMB/d, so they need +1.3MMB/d in just export capacity and storage facilities, that's $5-10Bn. On the US side there needs to be minor import expansion, but not super major, around $1Bn. Then, they have to get the oil flowing north. You'd be able to repurpose some Canadian pipelines (if we assume no USGC re-export), but right now Mid-Valley Pipeline is the only major remaining heavy trunk line that moves oil from the USGC region northward into the Midwest. So you need +3MMBbls/d of crude pipelines that move crude north which would run around $30-50Bn. Then you also need a condensate return line for another $10Bn. Venezuelan crude has higher levels of metals and a higher TAN than Canadian exports, so you need to retool the refineries accepting the new sauce, that's another $50-90Bn on the tab. Cause there's not enough VLCCs in the world to service this, you also need to build new tankers for the shuttle service. 30 new VLCCs will cost $4-8Bn. Then onto the upstream. I'm going to say that if you're getting super majors to really invest in Venezuela, they're going to do tertiary recovery which is overwhelmingly the right play over 20+ years with current SAGD tech (SAGD wasn't commercial when Venezuela grew the first go-round). Using foamy oil to get to 4MMBbls/d and keep it there for 10-20+ years is impossible (we're replacing Canada so we need a 20+ year RLI). Right now, Venezuela produces oil cold, and uses depleting reservoir pressure to bring that oil to surface. For a true Canada replacement, you need heat, which is going to be expensive! But we're not building new upgraders (replacing Canadian heavy), but even then upgrading capacity is only ~0.7MMB/d. The problem is they don't have the power infrastructure to add the power needed for 3MMBbls/d of SAGD for steam generation, and even for primary recovery they don't have the electricity they need. So you need to build 10-15 GW of new power infra, at gas-fired capital cost including transmission and the new midstream infra to move gas (including LNG import terminals), that's another $40-75Bn just to get the power to the SAGD facilities. There are constant rolling blackouts in the country. You also need ~7-900MB/d of diluent looping on the Venezuela side, including DRUs for another ~$25Bn. Other local midstream refurb is at least $15Bn to replace ashphalted and corroded trunk lines. Any North American firm would also have to commit to cleaning up Lake Maracaibo which is a $10Bn commitment. For the actual upstream facilities, I'm just going to use a pretty general number based on 125% of Canadian Greenfield costs, so ~$45K/Bbl/d, and lets just call it 2.8MMB/d that's another ~$125Bn for the actual production facilities and ~$220Bn in sustaining CAPEX while everything ramps, and inevitable 5yr issues will add another $10Bn. There are also very little functional logistics infrastructure. The Tinaco-Anaco rail line was never completed, so you'd have to finish that. All copper has been inevitably stripped and looted, you'd have to rebuild all sorts of worker camps, airports/airstrips, rail spurs, trainload facilities. You'd need to re-dredge the Orinoco River ($15Bn), complete the Tinaco-Anaco line ($20Bn), build 1,000 miles of new heavy spec roads ($25Bn), and you'd need to refresh all of the civil infrastructure cause nobody from Houston is going to live in Venezuela as it stands. So you're going to shoulder that in wages, or Fort Mac copy-paste CAPEX for ~$40Bn. You are also, in the growth/construction and first 5 years going to spend $50-60Bn on paying employees/EPC/other contractors. You need at least 50,000 people in offices and fields to get this done. Of course, security too. Petrominerales spent ~$2.50/BOE on security, so +3MMB/d over 5 years is ~$10Bn on security. So all-in we're at ~$700Bn in both direct upstream costs, and indirect costs. All-in, this is a $1 trillion project to grow exports ~3MMB/d. There is short-term growth to be had, but it's not sustainable growth. There is also huge long-term potential, but it's not the same as drilling a pad in the Permian and ripping a tie-in to Energy Transfer. It's a freaking massive commitment. The country is pretty much dilapidated, and until super majors (and other infra builders) begin committing to the full-cycle costs associated with realizing the country's potential, the upside is not as robust as many would want you to believe. - Export terminal ($8Bn) and import refresh ($1Bn) - Pipelines from USGC to Midwest ($40Bn) and then a condensate return line ($10Bn) - Retooling refineries ($75Bn) - New tankers for shuttle service ($6Bn) - Lake Maracaibo clean up ($10Bn) - New power infrastructure for the upstream growth at a post-AI inflated capital cost ($60Bn) - New diluent looping ($25Bn) - Actual upstream production facilities and <5yr sustaining capital and issue contingency ($355Bn) - Full logistics and civil infrastructure overhaul (~$100Bn) and security ($10Bn).

🚨🇻🇪🇺🇸🇮🇱 FREE MADURO, IMPRISON TRUMP & NETANYAHU

🇮🇷 IRAN PROTESTER HURLS MOLOTOV AT FORCES IN IRAN'S STREET CLASHES Footage captures a demonstrator lobbing a firebomb at security troops in Lahijan, northern Iran. What started like a few protests is escalating nationwide to a civil war. Flames erupt as crowds push back against Tehran's crackdowns. Source: @ariel_oseran

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN’S REGIME PANICS AFTER TRUMP THREATENS STRIKE: “WE’RE IN SURVIVAL MODE” Right after Trump warned that the U.S. would respond if Iran kills protesters, Tehran’s top security council scrambled into an emergency late-night meeting. They're in full in survival and damage-control mode. Officials inside that room admitted privately what the world’s been seeing for weeks: the Islamic Republic is in full-blown survival mode. Protests are exploding. The economy is falling apart. And now there’s the threat of U.S. airstrikes on top of it. The regime is terrified it won’t survive another wave of unrest and foreign pressure at the same time. They’re running out of options, and very fast. The regime can’t fix the economy, nor stop the protests; and now they have to plan for war while pretending everything’s fine. Iran’s leaders are used to putting on a strong face, but the panic is showing. They know what’s coming. The street isn’t afraid of them anymore, and of course, neither is Trump. Source: @FaytuksNetwork

🇻🇪 POLYMARKET BETTORS THINK MADURO WILL DIE IN PRISON Most people betting on Maduro's future think he’s not just going to jail, he’s never getting out. There’s a 54% chance he gets slapped with 60+ years, which is basically a forever sentence. Only 14% think he somehow avoids prison completely, which sounds more like fantasy than prediction. Turns out, skipping consequences gets harder when the whole world’s watching.

🚨🇮🇷 BREAKING: TEHRAN FORCES RAID CLASHING WITH PROTESTERS SEEKING REFUGE Intense scenes unfolding in Ilam, Iran: Armed security forces stormed Imam Khomeini Hospital to snatch the bodies of killed protesters and detain the injured, sparking fierce clashes as crowds fight back amid nationwide unrest entering Day 6. Local footage shows the brutal raid, with reports of at least 16 deaths nationwide and over 600 arrests. Source: Hengaw, Iran International, Local Witnesses,

🚨🇮🇷 TEHRAN'S SKY IS EXPLODING Videos from West Tehran capture eerie streaks and bursts in the night sky, sparking buzz amid regional tensions. Officials say it's just routine tests, no threats. Source: @NiohBerg

🇮🇷 CLASHES EXPLODE IN IRAN AS PROTESTS INTENSIFY Security forces are firing live rounds as protesters refuse to back down in the western city near the Iraq border. Streets are littered with burning debris and tear gas clouds as crowds chant anti-regime slogans and confront riot police head-on. Source: @Osint613

🇮🇷 FROM TEHRAN TO QOM: ANTI-REGIME PROTESTS SWEEP IRAN Even small towns and conservative provinces are rising, signaling a level of rejection the regime hasn’t faced since 1979. Security forces are stretched thin, with reports of desertions and escalating brutality to compensate. Source: @Daractenus

🇮🇷 IRAN FORCES RAID ILAM HOSPITAL TO ABDUCT WOUNDED PROTESTERS Security units have entered the hospital during ongoing protests in Ilam. Injured citizens are being seized from inside the facility by armed forces. Reports accuse the regime of abducting and murdering wounded protesters. Source: @NiohBerg

🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪 TRUMP WARNS PETRO "WATCH YOUR ASS”: COLOMBIA SCRAMBLES TO PROTECT HIM After Colombia’s President Petro criticized U.S. actions in Venezuela, Trump fired back with: “He better watch his ass.” Now Bogotá has tightened security around Petro, with the defense minister confirming heightened protective measures amid rising tensions. Colombia just went from commenting on the chaos next door to fearing it might be next. This was a warning, as Trump just removed one socialist leader with surgical precision, and Petro’s government clearly got the message. Whether it’s paranoia or preparation, Latin American leaders are realizing: the Venezuela op wasn’t just about Maduro, and everyone’s now wondering if they’re on the list. Source: @Osint613

🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪 REP. JIM JORDAN: MADURO IS A NARCO BACKED BY IRAN AND CHINA - HE WAS OPERATING A DRUG EMPIRE Maduro ran a drug empire, cozied up to Iran and China, and operated freely in the U.S.’s backyard, until Trump had him snatched and flown to a New York jail. Rep. Jim Jordan is all for it. He says this is about protecting American families from fentanyl and cartels. Jordan points to real damage in his own district and says bringing down Maduro sends a message: Trump acts, and he gets results. "I trust Trump to make decisions that are in the best interest of Americans. Trump gets results. When you have a guy who's head of a narco-terrorist operation cozying up to Iran and China in our hemisphere, bringing him to justice is a good thing. Most Americans think that’s a good thing. I know what fentanyl and other drugs have done to families in the 4th District of Ohio. Americans recognize this as decisive action that makes a difference for us and for Venezuelans." Source: @Jim_Jordan , @rapidresponse47

🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪🇨🇳 SEN. SCHMITT: MADURO’S ARREST WAS A MESSAGE TO CHINA Schmitt says Trump’s move against Maduro wasn’t just about Venezuela, it was a strategic signal to Beijing. He claims Chinese diplomats were inside Venezuela during the operation, underscoring U.S. intelligence reach and deterrence. Schmitt frames it as a warning that the Western Hemisphere is not open to CCP expansion. “Trump didn’t just arrest Maduro. He sent a message to China. If you don’t think China noticed that we were able to do this under the cover of darkness without them knowing anything about it, that’s a very important point for deterrence. The U.S. has a very important interest in the Western Hemisphere: that Venezuela isn’t the playground for the CCP.” Source: @Eric_Schmitt , @EricLDaugh

🚨🇮🇷 IRAN: UNDERCOVER AGENT FAILS TO DETAIN TEEN PROTESTER - STOPPED BY FLYING KICK An undercover agent of Iran’s Islamic regime attempted to force a teenage anti-regime protester into a police vehicle during ongoing unrest. Another protester intervened, knocking the agent down with a flying kick and allowing the teen to escape. The incident comes amid nationwide protests driven by economic collapse, repression, and calls for regime change. Source: Visegrád24

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 IRAN CONDUCTS MISSILE DEFENSE EXERCISE - NETANYAHU HOLDS HOURS-LONG IRAN SECURITY MEETING Iranian officials are increasingly nervous that Israel could exploit the ongoing unrest inside the country, as protests continue to spread and intensify. Tensions escalated further after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched missile and air defense drills on Sunday, with air defense fire reported in multiple cities, including Tehran and Shiraz. At the same time, Netanyahu held extended security consultations focused on Iran, signaling close monitoring as the situation remains volatile. Source: @Osint613

🚨🇮🇷 IRAN PROTESTER FIRES IMPROVISED FLAMETHROWER AT SECURITY FORCES During raging protests in Iran, video from yesterday captures a rioter unleashing a homemade flamethrower on Tehran's forces. Crazy improvised weapon in the heat of clashes rocking cities like Ilam. Source: @OSINTWarfare