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James Lavish
james@primal.net
npub1cj94...0efa
reformed hedge fund manager | cfa | bitcoin | writes the 💡Informationist newsletter (www.jameslavish.com)
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james 1 year ago
Why is 2% the right amount of inflation? It’s the amount they can get away with in order to debase the underlying currency, much like a hidden tax, without upsetting people to the point of rebellion. (from today’s Informationist Newsletter)
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james 1 year ago
Free Speech = Freedom Wake up those around you who are slumbering straight into the oh so enticing pastures of physical and mental captivity.
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james 1 year ago
Resist global censorship. Remain decentralized with #Nostr and #Bitcoin.
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james 1 year ago
Good evening Nostrs. Let’s be honest. A 25% tax on unrealized capital gains is nothing more than a cheap political talking point that is so monumentally stupid that it will *never* happen. Have a great night.
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james 1 year ago
Bottom line. It’s not really about instituting ‘price controls’, it’s about shifting blame for relentless inflation to ‘big, bad, evil corporations’ and away from the incumbents.
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james 1 year ago
Is it me or is Elizabeth Warren somehow becoming even *more* detached from economic reality?
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james 1 year ago
When the 2yr UST spread to Fed Funds Effective Rate goes this negative, it is a strong sign that rate cuts are imminent (and so is a recession). image
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james 1 year ago
The across the board mainstream media meltdown over the Trump/Elon open conversation is equal parts humorous and terrifying.
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james 1 year ago
At the point that you fully understand #Bitcoin, it becomes your risk/reward benchmark for all other investments and assets, one that’s nearly impossible to beat.
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james 1 year ago
Why is the market seemingly suddenly so obsessed with unemployment? Look at this chart to see how, once unemployment begins to tick higher, the momentum that carries the economy into recession is virtually impossible to stop. image
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james 1 year ago
99% of what you are being shown is pure theater and not for your benefit. Recognize this and you can begin to critically think for yourself—a rapidly disappearing skill in the Western world.
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james 1 year ago
Imagine having defected from North Korea only to now be living in the UK.
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james 1 year ago
Good morning Nostrs, it appears this may be the only place to speak openly in the future for many of us. For some already. Stay vigilant. Stay focused.
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james 1 year ago
Good morning. If you slept the prescribed 8 hours last night, the US government borrowed $1.94B in that time. And its Council of Economic Advisors has no idea what that means. Have a great day.
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james 1 year ago
#Bitcoin is the only liquid asset that trades 24/7 and sometimes pays the price for this during weekends of potential World War, as investors too clever for themselves seek something, anything to sell before markets open again on Monday.
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james 1 year ago
The year is 2033. A Hershey's bar costs $39, the average home costs $2.7M, US Debt has crested $90T, and Vanguard investors are wondering why they weren’t allowed to buy #Bitcoin when it was still under $100K.
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james 1 year ago
Good evening. I’ve been getting a lot of questions re: The Fed and QT. Going to make this as simple as possible for everyone. The Reverse Repo (RRF) is basically a slush fund where excess cash has been parked since QE 2020. The Treasury has been using the RRF to fund its needs by issuing short term T-Bills. The RRF is down to $500B from a peak of $2.5T. When the RRF is drained, the Treasury needs to find new capital. It will do this by issuing longer dated Treasuries. This will cause the banks to use their reserves. There are currently $3.5T in bank reserves. When bank reserves drop to $2.5T the Fed and Treasury get nervous. Why? Because they worry about another liquidity crisis like Sept 2019 when the overnight rates spiked when banks basically ran out of liquidity at the same time that the Treasury issued a pile of unexpected debt. There are a number of reasons for this I won’t go into. And so, when the RRF is drained or near drained, the Fed slows QT (selling the bonds they bought in 2020-2021 to add liquidity in the markets. This is also what helped create the excess slush fund of RRF). And then, when the reserves hit $2.5T, QT ends. Why? The Fed cannot compete with the Treasury for liquidity at that point. Because the last thing the Treasury can have is disfunction in a Treasury auction. And so, QT ends. And the next step will be? QE. More cowbell. More. slush fund. Wheee. Hope this helps. Have a great night.