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Courtesy of Grok π Where the yen goes BTC goesβ¦
The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin (BTC) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) has recently become strongly positive β a sharp contrast to its typical inverse relationship with the US dollar (DXY).
This measures how BTC's price (in USD) moves in tandem with the yen's strength (often tracked via a JPY index against major currencies or inversely via USD/JPY pair). A positive correlation means BTC and the yen tend to rise/fall together.
### Recent Data (as of mid-to-late January 2026)
- 90-day rolling correlation between BTC and the yen (e.g., Pepperstone's JPY index or similar yen strength measures) has hit record highs around 0.84 to 0.86 (some sources cite peaks over 0.85β0.86).
- This implies roughly 73% of BTC's price swings in that window have mirrored yen movements (calculated as correlation squared).
- On weekly timeframes since BTC's October 2025 peak (~$126,000), correlations have reached as high as 0.89 (89%) in some analyses.
- As recently as January 23, 2026 reports, the 90-day figure was noted at 0.84 amid steady trading (BTC near $90,000, USD/JPY around 158.70).
This marks an unprecedented level of sync β described in multiple reports (CoinDesk, TradingView data, AMBCrypto, etc.) as "moving together like never before." It's the tightest BTC-yen linkage on record.
### Why This Shift?
The surge ties heavily to macro dynamics starting late 2025:
- Yen carry trade unwind/rehydration: Low Japanese interest rates historically funded yen borrowing to invest in higher-yielding assets (including risk-on plays like BTC via leveraged positions or arbitrage, e.g., CME BTC futures).
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy shifts (rate hikes/expectations) strengthened the yen at times, pressuring carry trades β risk-off moves hit BTC hard.
- Global liquidity effects: Yen weakness (from ultra-low rates) boosted risk assets like BTC; yen strength did the opposite.
- This has made BTC behave more like a proxy for yen dynamics in certain periods, reducing its diversification appeal versus traditional assets.
Historically, BTC-yen correlation was much lower or variable (often weaker positive or even negative in spots), but 2025β2026 macro regime changes (BOJ normalization, carry trade volatility) drove this record positive link.
### Comparison to Dollar
- BTC vs. DXY: Still generally negative (inverse), as dollar strength pressures risk assets.
- BTC vs. JPY: Now strongly positive (direct), so yen weakness (higher USD/JPY) often supports BTC, while yen rallies can weigh on it.
Correlations are dynamic and can shift with events (e.g., upcoming JGB auctions, BOJ decisions, or Fed moves). Tools like TradingView often plot BTC vs. JPYX (yen index) or BTCJPY pair for live views. If you want a specific timeframe, rolling window, or comparison to another currency/asset, just let me know!
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