I am today years old to realize there was an RHR discount code for nostr:nprofile1qy28wumn8ghj7ctvvahjuat50phjummwv5hszrnhwden5te0dehhxtnvdakz7qpqzzmxvr9sw49lhzfx236aweurt8h5tmzjw7x3gfsazlgd8j64ql0sx6f08g 😂
Rob Hamilton
rob@primal.net
npub1emdt...c9aw
Notes (6)
The nostr:nprofile1qqsppdnxpjc82jlm3yn9gawhv7p4nm69a3f80rg5ycw305xned2s0hcpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhswy2ckt lip balm is very underrated.
Me pulling up to this weeks nostr:nprofile1qqs879mhq6kkuzh2wk57xdzanl76uem8d7hlyjd7v4a4jcm4u88d8ygpr9mhxue69uhhxetwv35hgtnwdaekvmrpwfjjucm0d5q3kamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwvf5hgcm0d9h8qctjdvhxxmmd5p88ke to check in on the super cycle with nostr:nprofile1qqsywt6ypu57lxtwj2scdwxnyrl3sry9typcstje65x7rw9a2e5nq8spz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakq77p088 and nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx
Rob Stragegy has added 6 additional bars of nostr:nprofile1qqsppdnxpjc82jlm3yn9gawhv7p4nm69a3f80rg5ycw305xned2s0hcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qy28wumn8ghj7ctvvahjuat50phjummwv5hs9hkge4 soap to the Hamilton Strategic Soap Reserve
I have now fully open sourced the code which creates this on-chain BIP-444 futures contract!
The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address).
Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation.
The contract is built as follows:
The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active.
We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short.
The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception.
The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF
The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf.
The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates.
So to summarize:
- If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
- If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood.
With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating.
You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well.
Github: https://github.com/Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures
Address: https://mempool.space/signet/address/tb1p07flh4waghmkeep0l20nf2tyn4tw9wy3w4j5vkrf6mue9ddtakgsgc5clr
Anyone who wants to take the BIP-444 WILL activate side, let me know! The Author of the BIP has agreed to this, I have already asked for a larger bet size beyond the 1 BTC I initially proposed, but I have more!
The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address).
Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation.
The contract is built as follows:
The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active.
We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short.
The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception.
The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF
The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf.
The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates.
So to summarize:
- If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
- If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out.
Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood.
With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating.
You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well.
Github: https://github.com/Rob1Ham/BIP-444-Futures
Address: https://mempool.space/signet/address/tb1p07flh4waghmkeep0l20nf2tyn4tw9wy3w4j5vkrf6mue9ddtakgsgc5clr
Anyone who wants to take the BIP-444 WILL activate side, let me know! The Author of the BIP has agreed to this, I have already asked for a larger bet size beyond the 1 BTC I initially proposed, but I have more!
Here is a vibe coded rebase of BIP-444 by nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7cnjvghxjme0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqyr7at68k4cxms9a7pdca5gzf3svqd95d3fj9j4vuyj0nyta8x3j2whad7ya
& Dathon onto Bitcoin Core version 30.
To be clear - this thing vibe coded all the merge conflicts, do not use this for real money, just a visual aid:
https://github.com/Rob1Ham/bitcoin/pull/1