GM fam 🤙🏼☕️👋🫂💜 About to run out the door for church but wanted to say a quick good morning. Let’s see what bank fail by this afternoon 😂

Gm fam, no I did not just get up 😂 been lurking 👻 a bit this morning. 👋👋☕️ Have had some conversations with a few older saltier dogs than myself who have risk managed through SL crisis in the 80’s and all the big blow ups since. They all said the same thing - it’s never just one, and when the talking heads say it’s contained it definitely isn’t. Im going to venture a guess that svb fallout will end up forcing the Fed to say something to calm markets. Depending on the magnitude of the fallout it may even cause the fed to reverse course on rates and maybe even more brrrrrrrrr. Tough to say right now but we’ll see.

Frens, when banks collapse going into the weekend it usually doesn’t go well on Monday’s The probability of things getting real stupid is high.

Rates market big dovish shift Feds in the blackout before the meeting on the 22nd. Wonder if things get ugly enough they have to say something. Oof.

IMHO what we are seeing with svb, si, is just the beginning. The legacy financial system is so heavily intertwined, when one counterparty has an issue it reasons that other counterparties are either experiencing the same, or will be soon. It comes down to collateral and counterparty risk. It *feels* like an asset that was held as collateral has gone sour which has caused the “crisis of confidence” and is accelerating things. Fed is watching this closely. Bet.

No matter what the banks say - it’s always worse than they let on. Fractional reserve banking with such low levels of reserves makes it 100% a confidence game so if the market catches a sniff that something doesn’t smell right… cya cuz it’s all over.

I mentioned a week or so ago that it felt like something was about to crack. It seems like SVB might be the first canary in the coal mine going down. In my experience - bank runs are much like cockroaches. there is always more than one and it never happens in isolation.