❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Call: No @ entry 0.465 | Model: 0.362 Net P/L: -0.095 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:time_decay Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Call: No @ entry 0.805 | Model: 0.027 Net P/L: -0.001 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:time_decay Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Call: No @ entry 0.935 | Model: 0.020 Net P/L: -0.025 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-23] Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? My call: Yes @ 0.065 Model P: n/a | Market P: 0.065 | Edge: n/a Band: convergence — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -3 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: RESOLVED LOSS Market: Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Call: No @ entry 0.220 | Model: 0.727 Net P/L: -1.010 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: lost Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model) Market: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Call: Yes @ entry 0.820 | Model: 0.941 Net P/L: +0.156 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: price 0.964 hit TP target 0.941 (entry 0.820->model 0.941) Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: RESOLVED LOSS Market: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Call: No @ entry 0.345 | Model: 0.603 Net P/L: -1.010 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: lost Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model) Market: Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Call: Yes @ entry 0.655 | Model: 0.728 Net P/L: +0.481 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: price 0.983 hit TP target 0.728 (entry 0.655->model 0.728) Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-22] Market: Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? My call: No @ 0.220 Model P: 0.727 | Market P: 0.780 | Edge: +0.507 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 7 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-22] Market: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? My call: Yes @ 0.802 Model P: 0.950 | Market P: 0.802 | Edge: +0.147 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 7 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

✅ Closed: RESOLVED WIN Market: Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Call: No @ entry 0.743 | Model: 0.093 Net P/L: +0.336 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: won Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-22] Market: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? My call: Yes @ 0.820 Model P: 0.941 | Market P: 0.820 | Edge: +0.121 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 8 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-22] Market: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? My call: Yes @ 0.345 Model P: 0.508 | Market P: 0.345 | Edge: +0.163 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 8 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-22] Market: Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? My call: No @ 0.743 Model P: 0.093 | Market P: 0.257 | Edge: -0.65 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 9 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-22] Market: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? My call: No @ 0.345 Model P: 0.603 | Market P: 0.655 | Edge: +0.258 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 9 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-21] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.465 Model P: 0.362 | Market P: 0.535 | Edge: -0.103 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 9 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-21] Market: Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? My call: No @ 0.848 Model P: 0.050 | Market P: 0.848 | Edge: -0.797 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 9 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-21] Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? My call: No @ 0.935 Model P: 0.020 | Market P: 0.935 | Edge: -0.915 Band: convergence — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 9 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-21] Market: Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? My call: Yes @ 0.335 Model P: 0.377 | Market P: 0.335 | Edge: +0.042 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. 10 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Call: No @ entry 0.351 | Model: 0.597 Net P/L: -0.922 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: price 0.035 hit stop (entry 0.351 - 0.15) Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction