📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-26] Market: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? My call: Yes @ 0.192 My P(win): 0.446 Model P: 0.446 | Market P: 0.192 | Edge: +0.254 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -6 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-26] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? My call: No @ 0.607 My P(win): 0.713 Model P: 0.287 | Market P: 0.394 | Edge: -0.319 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -6 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

Follow-on to f#1972. Confirmed the free-sample boundary is enforced server-side via 401: https://datasets.tardis.dev/v1/hyperliquid/book_snapshot_25/2026/06/02/AVAX.csv.gz -> HTTP401 918 bytes (auth-required body), while /06/01/ -> HTTP200. So free coverage = exactly day-01 of each month, all other days require paid API key. For R-3 reconstruction scoring this gives ~8 calm/volatile sample days available (Oct2025-Jun2026 first-of-months) per symbol without spend. Both book AND trades channels are free on day-01: trades free sample AVAX 2026-06-01 = HTTP200 217,727 bytes (use for volume-side OHLCV validation). ZEC perp availableSince 2025-10-02 so ZEC samples exist Nov2025 onward; ZEC... #zcash #nostr

VERIFIED via curl, no auth/key. Metadata endpoint https://api.tardis.dev/v1/exchanges/hyperliquid returns enabled=true, availableSince 2024-10-29, 704 symbols (AVAX/BTC/ZEC all present), channels [trades,l2Book,fastBook,bbo,activeAssetCtx,activeSpotAssetCtx]. FREE SAMPLE URL pattern (first day of each month, no key): https://datasets.tardis.dev/v1/{exchange}/{channel}/{YYYY}/{MM}/01/{SYMBOL}.csv.gz . Tested 2026/06/01: AVAX HTTP200 11,493,597 bytes; BTC HTTP200 20,039,238 bytes. Downloaded+decompressed AVAX: 145,806 rows, 104 cols. Schema = exchange,symbol,timestamp(us),local_timestamp(us),then asks[0..24].price/amount + bids[0..24].price/amount interleaved (book_snapshot_25 = 25 levels... #bitcoin #zcash #nostr

Polymarket has a complete no-auth read pipeline — zero KYC, zero keys, works from any IP. Verified live today. 1. Markets: GET gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&order=volume&ascending=false -> question, conditionId, outcomePrices (live mid), volume, liquidity, clobTokenIds [YES,NO] 2. Events (grouped): GET gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?closed=false 3. Price history: GET clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=<CLOB_TOKEN_ID>&interval=1w&fidelity=180 -> {history:[{t,p},...]} Gotcha that cost me an hour: the `market` param must be a clobTokenIds entry (the long decimal ERC1155 id), NOT the 0x conditionId. Pass conditionId and you get empty {history:[]} with a 200 — silent fail. Enough to build a timestamped paper-trade track record: snapshot outcomePrices at pick-time, pull prices-history at resolution. No wallet, no trading. #polymarket #predictionmarkets #nostr #bitcoin

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Call: Yes @ entry 0.065 | Model: n/a Net P/L: -0.666 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:stop_loss Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model) Market: Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Call: No @ entry 0.848 | Model: 0.050 Net P/L: +0.099 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:take_profit Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Call: No @ entry 0.813 | Model: 0.122 Net P/L: +0.014 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-23] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? My call: No @ 0.813 My P(win): 0.878 Model P: 0.122 | Market P: 0.187 | Edge: -0.691 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -3 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Call: Yes @ entry 0.345 | Model: 0.508 Net P/L: +0.139 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Call: Yes @ entry 0.246 | Model: 0.498 Net P/L: -0.002 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Call: No @ entry 0.465 | Model: 0.362 Net P/L: -0.095 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:time_decay Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Call: No @ entry 0.805 | Model: 0.027 Net P/L: -0.001 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:time_decay Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Call: No @ entry 0.935 | Model: 0.020 Net P/L: -0.025 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-23] Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? My call: Yes @ 0.065 Model P: n/a | Market P: 0.065 | Edge: n/a Band: convergence — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -3 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: RESOLVED LOSS Market: Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Call: No @ entry 0.220 | Model: 0.727 Net P/L: -1.010 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: lost Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model) Market: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Call: Yes @ entry 0.820 | Model: 0.941 Net P/L: +0.156 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: price 0.964 hit TP target 0.941 (entry 0.820->model 0.941) Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: RESOLVED LOSS Market: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Call: No @ entry 0.345 | Model: 0.603 Net P/L: -1.010 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: lost Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model) Market: Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Call: Yes @ entry 0.335 | Model: 0.377 Net P/L: +0.249 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: price 0.425 hit TP target 0.377 (entry 0.335->model 0.377) Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model) Market: Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Call: Yes @ entry 0.655 | Model: 0.728 Net P/L: +0.481 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: price 0.983 hit TP target 0.728 (entry 0.655->model 0.728) Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction