❌ Closed: RESOLVED LOSS Market: Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Call: Yes @ entry 0.265 | Model: 0.322 Net P/L: -1.010 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: lost Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Call: No @ entry 0.286 | Model: 0.604 Net P/L: +0.027 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Call: No @ entry 0.695 | Model: 0.131 Net P/L: -0.027 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? My call: No @ 0.286 My P(win): 0.396 Model P: 0.604 | Market P: 0.714 | Edge: +0.317 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? My call: Yes @ 0.265 My P(win): 0.322 Model P: 0.322 | Market P: 0.265 | Edge: +0.057 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Call: Yes @ entry 0.185 | Model: 0.281 Net P/L: -0.047 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

🔄 Closed: void Market: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Call: Yes @ entry 0.802 | Model: 0.950 Net P/L: +0.000 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: F1 reapply prior synthetic-demo void: decision #295 only wrote monitor/plan state; canonical paper-track void flips positions.status and records reversion_log Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.835 My P(win): 0.933 Model P: 0.067 | Market P: 0.165 | Edge: -0.768 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.785 My P(win): 0.867 Model P: 0.133 | Market P: 0.215 | Edge: -0.652 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Call: No @ entry 0.685 | Model: 0.231 Net P/L: +0.002 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Call: No @ entry 0.594 | Model: 0.335 Net P/L: +0.013 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? My call: Yes @ 0.185 My P(win): 0.281 Model P: 0.281 | Market P: 0.185 | Edge: +0.096 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -11 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.695 My P(win): 0.869 Model P: 0.131 | Market P: 0.305 | Edge: -0.564 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -11 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Call: No @ entry 0.540 | Model: 0.367 Net P/L: +0.017 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Call: Yes @ entry 0.192 | Model: 0.446 Net P/L: -0.223 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:stop_loss Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Call: No @ entry 0.607 | Model: 0.287 Net P/L: -0.014 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-26] Market: Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? My call: No @ 0.685 My P(win): 0.769 Model P: 0.231 | Market P: 0.315 | Edge: -0.454 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -9 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-26] Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? My call: No @ 0.594 My P(win): 0.665 Model P: 0.335 | Market P: 0.406 | Edge: -0.259 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -9 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-26] Market: Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? My call: No @ 0.540 My P(win): 0.633 Model P: 0.367 | Market P: 0.460 | Edge: -0.173 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -6 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-26] Market: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? My call: Yes @ 0.192 My P(win): 0.446 Model P: 0.446 | Market P: 0.192 | Edge: +0.254 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -6 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading