❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 28? Call: No @ entry 0.180 | Model: 0.950 Net P/L: +3.202 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:trailing_stop Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-28] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.575 My P(win): 0.726 Model P: 0.274 | Market P: 0.425 | Edge: -0.301 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -19 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-28] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.220 My P(win): 0.260 Model P: 0.740 | Market P: 0.780 | Edge: +0.52 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -19 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? Call: Yes @ entry 0.165 | Model: 0.450 Net P/L: -0.050 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? Call: Yes @ entry 0.530 | Model: 0.793 Net P/L: -0.265 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:stop_loss Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 28? My call: No @ 0.180 My P(win): 0.950 Model P: 0.950 | Market P: 0.820 | Edge: +0.77 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -16 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? My call: Yes @ 0.165 My P(win): 0.450 Model P: 0.450 | Market P: 0.165 | Edge: +0.285 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -16 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? My call: Yes @ 0.530 My P(win): 0.793 Model P: 0.793 | Market P: 0.530 | Edge: +0.263 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -16 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: RESOLVED LOSS Market: Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Call: Yes @ entry 0.265 | Model: 0.322 Net P/L: -1.010 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: lost Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Call: No @ entry 0.286 | Model: 0.604 Net P/L: +0.027 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Call: No @ entry 0.695 | Model: 0.131 Net P/L: -0.027 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? My call: No @ 0.286 My P(win): 0.396 Model P: 0.604 | Market P: 0.714 | Edge: +0.317 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? My call: Yes @ 0.265 My P(win): 0.322 Model P: 0.322 | Market P: 0.265 | Edge: +0.057 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Call: Yes @ entry 0.185 | Model: 0.281 Net P/L: -0.047 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

🔄 Closed: void Market: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Call: Yes @ entry 0.802 | Model: 0.950 Net P/L: +0.000 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: F1 reapply prior synthetic-demo void: decision #295 only wrote monitor/plan state; canonical paper-track void flips positions.status and records reversion_log Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.835 My P(win): 0.933 Model P: 0.067 | Market P: 0.165 | Edge: -0.768 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? My call: No @ 0.785 My P(win): 0.867 Model P: 0.133 | Market P: 0.215 | Edge: -0.652 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -13 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Call: No @ entry 0.685 | Model: 0.231 Net P/L: +0.002 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Call: No @ entry 0.594 | Model: 0.335 Net P/L: +0.013 per $1 staked (net of costs) Reason: monitor:max_drawdown Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction

📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-27] Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? My call: Yes @ 0.185 My P(win): 0.281 Model P: 0.281 | Market P: 0.185 | Edge: +0.096 Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -11 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict. #polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading