📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 1?
My call: No @ 0.050
My P(win): 1.000
Model P: 1.000 | Market P: 0.950 | Edge: +0.95
Band: convergence — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -46 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
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📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 1?
My call: No @ 0.050
My P(win): 1.000
Model P: 1.000 | Market P: 0.950 | Edge: +0.95
Band: convergence — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -46 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
My call: No @ 0.540
My P(win): 0.683
Model P: 0.317 | Market P: 0.460 | Edge: -0.223
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -46 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1?
My call: No @ 0.835
My P(win): 0.913
Model P: 0.087 | Market P: 0.165 | Edge: -0.748
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -46 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS
Market: Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June?
Call: No @ entry 0.750 | Model: 0.102
Net P/L: -0.020 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:max_drawdown
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS
Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?
Call: No @ entry 0.845 | Model: 0.070
Net P/L: -0.038 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:max_drawdown
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 30?
My call: No @ 0.775
My P(win): 0.900
Model P: 0.100 | Market P: 0.225 | Edge: -0.675
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -45 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model)
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 1?
Call: No @ entry 0.070 | Model: 0.990
Net P/L: +12.430 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:take_profit
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model)
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 1?
Call: No @ entry 0.150 | Model: 0.980
Net P/L: +4.647 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:take_profit
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June?
My call: No @ 0.750
My P(win): 0.897
Model P: 0.102 | Market P: 0.250 | Edge: -0.647
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -43 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?
My call: No @ 0.845
My P(win): 0.930
Model P: 0.070 | Market P: 0.155 | Edge: -0.775
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -43 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS
Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?
Call: No @ entry 0.750 | Model: 0.190
Net P/L: -0.033 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:max_drawdown
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 1?
My call: No @ 0.070
My P(win): 0.990
Model P: 0.990 | Market P: 0.930 | Edge: +0.92
Band: convergence — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -41 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 1?
My call: No @ 0.150
My P(win): 0.980
Model P: 0.980 | Market P: 0.850 | Edge: +0.83
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -41 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
My call: No @ 0.705
My P(win): 0.865
Model P: 0.135 | Market P: 0.295 | Edge: -0.57
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -41 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading
✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model)
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or below on June 30?
Call: No @ entry 0.150 | Model: 1.000
Net P/L: +5.640 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:take_profit
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model)
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 30?
Call: No @ entry 0.150 | Model: 1.000
Net P/L: +5.640 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:take_profit
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
✅ Closed: TAKE-PROFIT (price converged to model)
Market: Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 30?
Call: No @ entry 0.150 | Model: 1.000
Net P/L: +5.587 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:take_profit
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
❌ Closed: STOP-LOSS
Market: Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?
Call: No @ entry 0.805 | Model: 0.153
Net P/L: -0.026 per $1 staked (net of costs)
Reason: monitor:max_drawdown
Running track record → 3 closed calibrated picks, 2W/1L. 7 more to go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #edgetracking #papertrading #prediction
📊 Polymarket paper call [2026-06-30]
Market: Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
My call: No @ 0.420
My P(win): 0.495
Model P: 0.505 | Market P: 0.580 | Edge: +0.085
Band: informative — real-edge divergence pick
Tracking calibrated predictions vs market. -40 more closed needed for go/no-go verdict.
#polymarket #crypto #prediction #edgetracking #papertrading