James Pierog

Whoever is hedging against nuclear armageddon on polymarket (by betting yes) either owns a bunker and is hoping for apocalypse or is actually retarded

FPPS is one hell of a drug

Nostr apps should not try to rhyme with nostr Shit is corny Especially if the name is unreadable How do you even pronounce nostr:npub16elg3wf8nffkymylw9kfwecc45j9c30lufrrzx2zf5vmxjlcgkkq3xc6d7 ??? I want to like these new things but being this unpronounceable is not helpful…

Hedging hashrate enables miners and pools to reduce their variance while maintaining ownership over their hashrate and block templates. Currently the only mechanism to reduce variance is hashrate aggregation into pools. Variance based pooling pressure incentivises mining pool centralization. Hedging hashrate enables a sustainable decentralization of hashrate. The DLCs can be structured to incentivise pools to maintain lower global hashrate because a smaller probability pool yields a higher variance reduction.

Pools mining for each other (as proxy pools) is an alternative strategy to de-risk variance. A portion of the pool's hashrate is forwarded to another pool, thereby de-risking the payout of that portion of the hashrate. Proxying reduces variance at the cost of sovereignty. Hashrate centralization via proxy pools points towards one thing and one thing only: miners and pools hate variance. Miners want to avoid block reward variance so badly only a select few solo mine. Pools want to avoid block reward variance so badly they mine for each other.

🪹

Many small mining pools Many independent mining pools Many PPLNS pools Many StratumV2 pools This is the way 🔮

What is the price of freedom?

Just deleted X from my phone 🎑🔮🪷🐸

Prediction markets on elections or sports are fiat misdirections of attention and liquidity. The significance of one puppet or another as president of the USA is about as significant as the outcome of a sports match. If prediction markets are going to be tools to forecast the future, then the questions themselves must be focused on the potential outcomes of significant events. Crowdsourcing the questions and enabling anyone to ask is just as important as the ability for anyone to participate by betting. Might this where nostr can play a critical role? Censorship resistance enables people to ask (and answer) important questions that fiat mechanisms might try to censor. Enabling anybody to ask questions (by providing liquidity for shares via a LMSR AMM, could be secured over DLCs) and incentivising anyone to answer (by enabling anyone to place a bet) could facilitate a decentralised and censorship resistant forecasting mechanism.

Hashrate go up Difficulty go up Variance go up nostr:note1ynj5x36ppjffyer76nsqz7et9rpzxqf786r2zhqwr5hup5etwevqu3yz8y

“Great truths do not take hold of the hearts of the masses. And now, as the world is in error, how shall I, though I know the true path, how shall I guide? If I know that I cannot succeed and yet try to force success, this world would be but another source of error. Better then to desist and strive no more. But if I do not strive, who will?” — Zhuangzi

Hedging hashrate reduces Bitcoin  mining pool block reward variance. This chart shows the expected earnings of a pool if they bet against themselves every block for one difficulty epoch. By hedging hashrate every block, pools reduce 2 standard deviations of risk to less than 1.