Guys. I have to "eat crow" on something. (meaning: I think I was wrong).
I was looking over the M2 chart and reviewing user comments and a couple of people suggested using a Global M2 offset of 76 days instead of the offset of 46 that I had been using.
I thought they were wrong so I didn't initially listen, but I finally just checked it out, and now I am convinced it was I who was wrong.
I agree that a 76 day offset does fit better. I'm 80% convinced that the offset should be 76 instead of what I had been using. It gets a little tricky when looking at the more recent BTC price action vs M2 because neither is a perfect fit, but when you zoom out a bit I think it becomes more clear.
It's late and I have to go to bed, but I wanted to make a visualization of this as soon as I saw it. I'll have to make a video on this later when I have time to.
Below are both charts, so you can see for yourself.
Now, here's the painful part: The difference in time to "blast-off".
- The top chart is how I had been presenting it, with a 46-day offset. This chart has Global M2 predicting a BTC blast-off from 6 March - 13 April.
- The bottom chart has a 76-day offset. This chart has the Global M2 predicting a BTC blast-off from 5 April - 12 May.
Yes, a whole month later.
So, while there is a small chance (20%) we could take off in early March, I think the greater chance (80%) is we take off in April (the bottom scenario). I apologize for not spotting this earlier. I zoomed in too much and was looking at too small of a time frame when coming up with the 46 offset.
I feel like a doofus. Please accept my apologies.
