At a rough guess I give $BTC 3-6 months before the top is in.
Obviously, I will continue to monitor things in realtime and make more precise analysis with a variety of metrics (which I will share) but this seems to be a realistic time frame.
colin crypto
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ββAll paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - ZERO" (Voltaire 1729) "Fiat is the scam that enables all other scams."
I DO NOT SELL COURSES π£οΈ
When an asset is said to be in "price discovery mode", it typically means the asset is reaching new price levels where thereβs no historical resistance to guide its value, often because it has broken past previous all-time highs (ATHs). In this phase, the market is "discovering" what the asset is worth without the constraints of past price ceilings, leading to potentially rapid and volatile price movements.
Love me some price discovery mode haha
Congratulations!!!
New ATHs reached for $BTC!


Global M2 Money Supply vs $MSTR


Global M2 vs BTC
What lies ahead.


Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC
BTC breaks above $105,500. Bears biting their fingernails in disbelief.
Global M2 shows a rocket move immediately ahead. (see zoomed-in chart #2)
BTC likely to break into new ATHs by the end of May.
90% correlation (insanely high) over the past 60 days.


I keep seeing people asking about "when alts"?
- DURING BULL MARKET -
Liquidity flows from BTC (alpha) to alts (beta) once BTC tops. This is during the bull market. It's all up to BTC first. Without BTC pumping there is no alt pumping. This is why I focus on the BTC chart. You can derive the rest from it.
- DURING BEAR MARKET -
During the bear market, alts drop more than BTC and recover less than BTC on each relief rally.
It depends which part of the cycle we're in. But alts are beta to BTC.
π΅ Tether Dominance Predicts BTC Tops
How to use Tether dominance (USDT.d) to show us where the next BTC next price top or sub-peak may be
$0.102M per Bitcoin is cheap!
In the grand scheme of things, I think this will be true in 5 to 10 years.


Here's what I'm thinking.
Bull flag after bull flag, in overall bullish momentum.
Resistance levels don't usually get blown through immediately. The doubt on the timeline shows how much of a huge move there will be once/if the breakout is confirmed. Trust me-- we will se a HUGE weekly candle if that happens.
I could see a $10k+ weekly candle upon confirmed breakout above the ATH range.


Why do I think the Bitcoin top is NOT in yet?
- Global M2 shows a massive pump ahead for BTC to follow.
- The backdrop/context is that CBBI.info has not shown a super overheated score for this cycle yet. Thus, I don't think the final top is in. If CBBI was showing 90+ or 95+ I would ignore Global M2 and start taking profits, because we know that M2 can and likely will deceive us near cycle tops (M2 can run up while BTC drops after topping).
The 9 bitcoin metrics of CBBI are NOT showing an overheated status.
The way I look at it: CBBI overrides M2. But M2 can remain legitimate until CBBI shows we're overheated. Until then, the top is likely not in.
Saying the same thing another way: Once CBBI attains a score over 90, it takes precedence in importance over M2 (because M2 can trick us after the true BTC top is in). Until then, let's continue riding the M2 wave up, because the BTC top is most likely *not* in yet.
Currently, BOTH M2 and CBBI show more room to run up.


Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC
Bitcoin is still right on track with Global M2.
$120,000+ by the end of May?
Will BTC get a huge move up around the May 24th like Global M2 shows? If so, it's likely BTC breaks into new ATHs. The FOMO at that time will be palpable due to all the sidelined doubters that thought the cycle was over.
I'd like to point out to any doubters of this correlation that it has already proven useful. During the past ~5 months, while bitcoin bled, many were worried that the cycle was over, Global M2 correctly predicted the move up from $76k to $105k (April 8 to today). This helped many avoid making the wrong decision of selling or assuming we are in a bear market. Thus, it's already proven valuable. Noting this for future detractors during *expected* non-correlated periods.


#ETHBTC
That's one heck of a weekly reversal candle.
It times with BTC dominance rejecting from its upper channel.


Bitcoin $105,000!
New ATH not far away now.
Bears are starting to panic and FOMO back in. You can feel it.
Global M2 was telling you this for months. Our time has come.


π΅ Global M2 vs BTC - How to Not Be Fooled By M2 at the TOP
How to avoid being rekt if Global M2 keeps going up while BTC goes down.
Get the Global M2 TradingView script with the CORRELATION TABLE:
https://www.tradingview.com/script/IM2f6uV6
Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC
Global M2 vs BTC - TradingView script
Published to TradingView as a public indicator script
π
https://www.tradingview.com/script/IM2f6uV6-Global-M2-by-Colin-Talks-Crypto-Days-Offset/


Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC
Big move up for $BTC. +$3k in 24 hours.
The surge continues! π
It looks like the pump could continue until nearly August, and M2 hasn't stopped climbing yet.
The BTC price continues to track M2 nicely. Remember, it may not always be this perfect. There will be 20% de-correlation periods as well. But we can enjoy the 80% correlation while it is happening, like right now!
I also included a comparison of some popular M2 offsets, in case it piques your curiosity. Watch this video if you don't know why it changes: youtu.be/A3fPHTEM0JQ
Learn more about the correlation of BTC to M2 in the video below


Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC
Right on track.
Noteable sideways/corrective periods (drawn in red boxes):
May 26 - June 18
July 1 - July 22+
Watch the video below to learn more about the predictive correlation of the Global M2 Money Supply to the Bitcoin price. π


For those who wonder why the M2 offset is different for $MSTR than it is for $BTC, that's because $MSTR is traded *5* days a week and not 7 days a week like BTC.
Some people give the example of 55 days offset for MSTR. I'll translate that:
55 WEEKDAYS is equivalent to 77 CALENDAR days (includes weekends). Now, you can see it's more similar to the offset with BTC (which I curretly have at 80 days), since BTC is traded 7 days per week.
So, really, MSTR and BTC are currently only 3 days apart.