The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.6%, the lowest level since April 2008. Average over the last 30 years is 5.7%. Persistent inflation is taking its toll...

🚨 Stock valuations have drifted beyond the edge of the financial solar system. The S&P 500’s dividend yield is sitting near its 2000 extreme at just 1.06%, while the S&P 400 Industrials’ price-to-book ratio has reached an all-time high of 8.02. In other words: investors are paying record prices for historically low returns. Is this the most dangerous market in history?

Receitas infladas sem a geração de caixa marginal ou faturamento real, inflam os balanços dessas empresas, "obrigando" a compra adicional de suas ações para o rebalanceamento dos índices. Se vcs entendem o que é isso, já sabem como terminará.

You're ignoring Moore's law which makes compute increasingly cheaper. AI will be much cheaper to run. Easy profits for model providers.

This is classic Jevons Paradox

The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly. Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive. This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era. Incredible technology does not automatically mean sustainable economics. The internet survived. Most internet companies didn't. Right now hyperscalers are spending trillions hoping future demand catches up to present capex. That's not certainty. That's a leveraged bet.

Keynesian stimulus doesn't magically create prosperity from thin air. It redistributes existing wealth from productive citizens to those with the best lobbyists and campaign contributions. When Congress passes a trillion-dollar "infrastructure" bill, you don't see bulldozers materializing from the ether. The government pulls capital from entrepreneurs who would have built factories, funded startups, or expanded payrolls. Instead, that money flows to Halliburton, Bechtel, and whatever construction firm hired the right former senator as a "consultant." The politically connected get guaranteed profits while you get higher taxes and inflation. The process works like a sophisticated laundering operation. Politicians promise jobs and growth while funneling taxpayer dollars to their cronies. Boeing gets defense contracts. Goldman Sachs underwrites the debt. Big Tech companies score "green energy" subsidies. Meanwhile, small business owners struggle with regulatory compliance costs and compete for the remaining scraps of capital. Free market economists identified this wealth transfer mechanism decades ago. Keynesian mythology persists because it serves powerful interests. Politicians love spending other people's money. Corporations love guaranteed returns. Wall Street loves bond issuance fees. The only losers are productive citizens who fund the whole charade. You can spot this corruption every time politicians claim stimulus will "create jobs." Jobs doing what? Building bridges to nowhere? Manufacturing solar panels that cost more than the energy they'll ever produce? Productive jobs emerge from genuine consumer demand, not political theater. Everything else just moves money from your pocket to theirs.

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