The P/E10 ratio* closely tracks the real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite, with a detrended correlation of 0.9977 since 1881.
*NOTE: The P/E10 ratio, also known as the CAPE Ratio, is a stock valuation metric that divides a broad market index's current price by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. It has been used by analysts to determine how expensive or cheap the market is. It strips out noise and looks at real earnings adjusted for inflation to give investors a better sense of value.
The historical average for the P/E10 is 17.7, but it has experienced dramatic swings between over- and undervalued periods.
The latest April reading of 37.9 is 69% above its long-term trendline. The disconnect has grown even wider as we closed out May.
Prior overshoots include:
• Panic of 1873 (Railroad bubble)
• Panic of 1907 (Copper Scheme)
• 1929 (Peak before Great Depression)
• 1966 (Peak before stagflation of the 1970s)
• 2000 (Peak of dot-com bubble)
• 2007 (Peak prior to GFC)
• 2021 (Last peak before 2022 Bear)
However, none of the prior overshoots I just listed, as shown in the attached chart, extended as far above the market’s “fair valuation” trend as today.
‼️2026 is by far the largest disconnect from trend in over 150 years‼️
And regardless of how big this current bubble is blown, this time is NOT different. All prior overshoots were followed by a drastic decline in markets, both in real and nominal terms.
Have a lovely Sunday. 😊
Source: Advisor Perspectives
