I swept some BTC to fiat last week—at the lows before this pump back to ATH.
Only slight regrets, the usual acknowledgment I'll probably never get that back at the same price. Cleared the personal debt I took on in Jan ’23 (loan, credit card, overdraft).
Still not buying the “super cycle” narrative. I want to believe!!!
Hope it plays out, but I act based on past cycles until proven otherwise.
A slow grind upward past the usual Nov 27 top? I don't see it. Traders want volatility; one or two bad headlines can spark a sell-off.
The change I see likely this cycle? Maybe bear drawdowns are 30–50% instead of 70–80%.
My plan: sweep more to fiat between now and late Nov. Goal: 2–4 years living expenses in cash. That’s peace of mind, FU money, and ammo to reload 12 months after the bull top. If holding the dirty fiat gets too much.
The rest stays in cold storage. I’m happy if price rips, unfazed if it dumps. I just can’t repeat last cycle—selling at the lows to cover expenses.
The biggest lesson from last cycle: stay in step with the overall trend. Sell into the bull, buy into the bear.
I’ve seen friends enter Bitcoin late in the bull, when risk is highest. It’s a tough spot—trying to temper their expectations without killing their excitement or hope for early retirement through the orange coin.
Many I’ve orange-pilled this cycle now believe BTC can NEVER go down and a “Super Cycle” is inevitable. Maybe they’re right. But there’s always a chance they’re not.
