What are some skills that you don’t understand at all?
For me music is at the top of the list. My husband can hear a tune and then with a few tries he can play the tune on the piano.
He barely had any music lessons but can somehow do that. I had guitar lessons, and my teacher tried to get me to do that, but I was terrible. So not only can’t I do it, I don’t really even know where I’d begin. The inability to even see the next step.
Like if I see a pro athlete do something, I know I can’t do it, but I get the basic idea of what they did to get to that stage on kind of a step by step basis. But when someone can hear music and then just play the melody, my mind is blown.
Lyn Alden
lyn@primal.net
npub1a2cw...w83a
Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Partner at Ego Death Capital. Finance/Engineering blended background.
100 squats a day til 100k.
The 58k gang is going to get us in shape.
The electronic project that I am most proud of from my engineering days, was also the most useless thing I ever built. I was reminded of it amid all the censorship in Brazil, because it’s about Embraer avionics, which are Brazilian.
A short story.
The background context was that I never considered myself to be a great engineer. I was more interested in finance but had gone into engineering instead, and basically what makes someone great in a field is whether they have the passion to do it in their spare time or not. The best engineers, after school or after work, go home and do more hobbyist engineering stuff. Like, they just live in it. I spent my spare time on financial research instead. I liked my engineering work, but was only a design engineer when I had to be, basically. My passion was elsewhere. So I knew I'd likely eventually go into engineering finance/management in that kind of hybrid role.
I went to work in an aviation simulation facility after college. Rather than being used for training new pilots as most airplane simulators are, this facility was used by corporate, academic, and government researchers to test new technologies and procedures with experienced pilots. So the simulators were more customizable than training simulators, but were less polished. They were always these cool work-in-progress machines.
We had Airbus, Boeing, and Cessna models in the early days. And we had a half-finished Embraer, simply because the manager of the simulation facility just wanted an Embraer due how cool and different they are. His higher-ups in the broader parent organization told him there wasn’t enough market demand for testing in Embraers and wouldn’t give him a budget for it, but he kept finding ways to gradually accumulate the parts anyway. Eventually he had the simulator shell, and genuine avionics, but still had to put it all together. The Embraer avionics and flight controls were just so much more interesting and sleek than the other types.
In our Boeing and Airbus simulators, we had genuine avionics, but interfaced them into industrial automation control logic and PCs, rather than what they normally connect to in the field. And it wasn’t hard because they used some standard communication protocols like RS-422 or RS-485. All the buttons and dials were easy to connect to automation control systems, and the serial communications were things you could buy a PC card for.
But the Embraer sat unfinished for years partially because there was no budget for it, and partially because it didn’t use those standard serial protocols. The serial communications coming from their flight panel and throttle were some custom method that none of our equipment could read. You could just rip it open and re-do the insides to talk to a PC more easily, but the manager forbade that; he wanted the Embraer avionics to remain pristine. We had incomplete documentation, and virtually no budget or labor to put into it beyond the pieces we already had. It was this hacky project. We didn’t even really have electronic design software other than a lapsed PSpice license, since we rarely did any sort of custom circuits and instead would interface various devices into automation systems.
So, getting the Embraer up and running was always on the manager’s pet project to-do list but not making much progress. He would occasionally put an entry level or intermediate level engineer on it for a few months and they’d eventually give up, leave the organization, or go back to something more economically relevant. It went on like that for years; it became the Kobayashi Maru for electronic engineers in this facility.
After my first couple years working there on the Boeing, Airbus, and Cessna, the manager was eventually like, “alright, I want you to see if you can get that Embraer flight panel connected.” Little budget, just me in the lab with an oscillator and multimeter. I knew this would happen one day- the Embraer avionics were always kind of looming in the lab, next to half-finished failed creations of my predecessors that tried to interface with it, knowing that eventually I’d be put to work on this thing. And I still had other duties to do, so this was like a budget-less side project I had to spend part of each week on, with insufficient equipment and documentation and with the knowledge that the Embraer simulator might not even be used if I somehow succeeded.
So I dove into it. The Embraer flight panel had a series of buttons, but unlike our other flight panels, they all went through a parallel-in serial-out (PISO) shift register. So they came out of the device in a fast custom serial communication stream. An external device had to give the flight panel a clock signal, and give another CLR signal that would be low for 24 milliseconds and high for 1 millisecond, and during that 1 millisecond there would be 256 clock signals, and the flight panel would output all of its current states of button and knobs within those 256 clock signals within the millisecond, every 25 milliseconds. And the CLR signal had to be shifted some microseconds away from the clock signal so that the signal edges of their square waves don’t occur simultaneously, which would cause reliability issues. The incomplete documentation we had only roughly outlined this; I had to iterate a bunch of oscillator tests to see what successfully worked as an input, and then more fully document where every button and dial showed up on the output data stream once I got it flowing.
And then once I figured out how it worked, I had to figure out how to connect it to a PC and/or our standard industrial automation interface.
At first I tried one of our 2 year old microcontrollers that we had on hand, which as of this writing are now nearly 15 years old so not the current generation stuff. I looked to see if I could program it to send in these signals and then read the signals coming from it, but it wasn’t nearly fast and precise enough. This project needed lower-level design than something software-based.
I wasn’t sure if FPGAs of the day would be fast enough, I hadn't worked on them before, and and we didn’t have any anyway. So I went the raw logic route instead which would be annoying but cheap and guaranteed to work. I researched crystal oscillators, logic gates, counters, flip-flops, and serial-in parallel-out (SIPO) shift registers. I then used them to build this whole digital clockwork circuit from scratch to basically reverse everything that the flight panel was doing. It would use a crystal oscillator as the initial frequency, and from that would generate the clock signal and the CLR signal to send to the flight panel, and would run the timing for a bunch of SIPO shift registers so that this stream of serial data coming out of the flight panel would load into the shift registers, then get frozen in place for 24 milliseconds which was fast enough for our slower industrial automation interface to read the data which was now in parallel form.
Then I bought all the cheap logic pieces, soldered together test circuits, troubleshooted it, and got the thing working. I came in alone on the weekends to do it since I had little time in the week; I was just caught in the flow of making this work. Rather than viewing it as annoying as I did early on, I now viewed it as something I had to beat.
And then the Embraer throttles were the second difficult piece. Rather than a normal position output as our other simulator throttles did, the Embraer throttles basically outputted sign waves, and as you moved the throttle, which was really well-crafted and smooth, the two sign waves would overlap to varying degrees. So I had to map that all out, build a circuit to read these sign waves and send that position data to the slower industrial automation interface in a way that it could read it. I then soldered together the circuits, and got that working too.
I then wired up all the more standard electronics in the Embraer which were not that different than the other simulators. And so, I was finally able to go the manager and say, “the Embraer’s flight controls and avionics are all connected now! ^_^”.
I remember being so proud, like, “oh shit, maybe I could actually be decent at this.” And the custom circuit interfaces indeed worked for the next decade and counting without maintenance, perfectly reliable. We then got the rest of the simulator fully set up.
But… the Embraer simulator was only used like one time, barely. No research teams wanted to test new technologies and procedures on Embraers; they would always test things on the Airbus and Boeing simulators. So this awesome simulator, with so much work poured into it, was a complete waste of time, which is what the managers’ higher-ups had told him from the beginning.
I went on to do a bunch of other projects including a business jet simulator and a helicopter simulator and an upgraded redesign of our Cessna before I went into management and out of design engineering, but nothing was quite as hacky as that Embraer simulator, so it was always the one I would look at fondly and be like, “I can’t believe this useless thing is still running.”
Rather than feeling sad that the work was wasted, I instead always kind of had a “journey before destination” mindset to it, like it was the most frustrating project that I had brute-force succeeded at, from research to design to physically putting it all together to troubleshooting, and gave me a bigger sense of achievement and got me into a higher state of flow than other engineering projects I had done. To this day, I always think of Embraer planes warmly.
Lol, Brazilians are heavily searching for "VPN" right now according to Google. One does love to see it:


Gm.
It seems that it will be very hard for Brazil to identify and enforce the fines on VPN usage for Twitter/X. But it’s a powerful scare tactic.
When the United States banned gold ownership in the1930s (which lasted for four decades all the way into the 1970s btw), they didn’t really enforce it at the household level. They just had large prison terms that were rarely ever applied, which effectively dried up liquidity in the gold market.
Some people have pointed out that Nostr relays could be blocked by Brazilian internet providers if Nostr was big enough to matter. However, more relays could spin up, so they’d have to keep adding to the list.
Brazil’s government could then say it’s illegal to use VPNs for any Nostr app around internet censoring. The defense against that is to make Nostr as ubiquitous as possible. The more apps that tie into Nostr in some way, the harder it is to ever ban it in practice. Some people might not even know their favorite app uses Nostr. Imagine if everyone’s favorite short form app, long form app, podcasting app, reviews app, wallet app, recipes app, picture app, music app, and tons of other stuff are tied into Nostr, and how hard that would be to ban.
If Nostr becomes big enough to really matter, it’s because it’ll be tied into so many different things. That’s super powerful. And the devs keep building rapidly.
I like the rock covers of Kiss From A Rose. I think I like Johnson's the best between the ones that are out there.
They don't really compete with the original of course but they breathe new life into the song for rock fans.
The fine for people using VPNs to access it is crazy.
And the judge really does look like a comic book villain.
View quoted note →
One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.
-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).
-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.
The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."
I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.
This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.


Broken Money was published a year ago this week
Thanks to everyone who read it, shared it, and reviewed it! 🙏
I resisted writing a book for years since it’s such a tedious process, until finally a book formed in my head that I felt needed to exist, and that was too distracting for me *not* to write. And then I poured everything I had into it.


GM. Fixed the typo.



If you intentionally go out looking for problems and drama, you’ll surely find them.
If you instead focus on constructive stuff, then some problems and drama will still find you because life is life, but usually way less.
I have another round of severe impersonators here on Nostr reaching out to credible people with scam opportunities.
Please ignore them. Always check the NIP-05 if available.
On my website sidebar, I link to my only valid social media profiles for verification.
For Nostr, the only one is the npub associated with primal.net/lyn, which is:
npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a


For those of you who are still on Twitter, I had a long debate thread today with Parker Lewis about Nostr. I'm a big fan of Parker, so I figured I'd share it here for shared learning.
Here's the latest post. I'm not sure it'll be the last or not but it's the latest one as of this writing. You can scroll up to see the exchange from the start.
Linking to my own post in isolation is bad form and the thumbnail is awkward depending on what client you're using, so I'll also provide a pic of the start of the debate too, with two posts of his and one of mine.
I'd be open to any thoughts about this debate.


X (formerly Twitter)
Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) on X
@parkeralewis 1) I said right in my first post that Nostr doesn't prevent app CEOs from getting arrested. But I think that's not really the #1 issu...
