Writing a sci fi manuscript, and continuing to fine tune it, made me do a ton of extra research on current trends in AI, biotech, material science, and VR. Like a big refresh. Not because the text focuses in detail on this tech (it doesn’t), but rather so that I have a general idea of what technologies are likely to come before or after other ones, to create what seems (at least to me) a reasonably coherent future world (with one big unrealistic extra thing I threw in there for fun). There are a lot of different path dependencies or “alternate timelines” for how the world could look in say 2030, 2040, 2050, and so on. So no sci fi vision can be said to fully predict things. And for example, we don’t fault the movie Blade Runner for not accurately predicting what 2019 would be like in 1982. But my goal is to be “well-considered.” Plausible. Or at least, plausible in the places where I am intending to be the most plausible. For example if I read a space opera set 500 years in the future and AI is nowhere to be found, or minimally so, I am distracted by this unless given a plausible explanation. The explanation of “the author didn’t think about it” isn’t good enough, at least for something that big. What technologies do you expect to surprise to the upside or downside in the next few decades?

My husband and I flew back from Dubai to Cairo today, on Christmas. When we got home, my mother in law and father in law (who are Muslim) had a surprise waiting for us: a Christmas tree set up in our wing of the home. They took the time to decorate it themselves, too. The whole place feels so festive now. People can be so cool and thoughtful. Anyway, GM and Merry Christmas.

My mom was like “oh you’ll be in Dubai during Christmas, so you won’t see many Christmas trees. What a shame.” Meanwhile Dubai:

Dubai Global Village is this big festival that has shops and food from different countries/continents of the world. The Americas one just cuts to the chase and is like “Steaks and Butter.” That’s our heritage.

This hyper-modern mosque design.

Usually when I see tall buildings I’m like “meh.” This one, however, feels even bigger in person.

My December newsletter is available now. The topic for this one is mainly Bitcoin: https://www.lynalden.com/december-2024-newsletter/

An amoeba is more complex than any machine that humans have thus far made.

The real world has gotten so strange that writing fiction almost feels more serious at this point. About half of the macro stuff is on autopilot anyway, because nothing stops that train. View quoted note →

I’m going to end up doing a full year without going to bitcoin conferences, by design. I skipped Nashville, skipped MENA, skipped all the European ones. Nothing against them. Just wasn’t feeling it. I did the Oslo Freedom Forum in June, but that’s not a bitcoin conference. The last actual one I did was Madeira in spring 2024. Sometimes it’s good to take a break and refocus rather than phone it in and say the same things again. The things I said before are still valid, so why say them again, you know? I’ve been traveling to visit family and friends instead.

Gm. One of the cool things about the oldest area of Cairo (which has both medieval and Ottoman era architecture) is that historically and artistically relevant areas are directly mixed with life as usual where people live and work. For example, this alley has a bunch of local art students making sketches of old architecture, while there are also active businesses in the area like a home accessories shop.

I have some fomo about the New Jersey drones. Like, as soon as I leave New Jersey for a couple months, that’s when all the cool shit happens. 🤷‍♀️

I keep seeing people try to predict what the MSTR premium over NAV “should” be, as a valuation question. However, the answer doesn’t truly exist, because it’s recursive. The current state of it is an input back to itself. It’s arbitraged, in other words. As long as there is a sizable premium, MSTR will continue issuing securities until demand is saturated for a period of time. A high premium tells MSTR to keep issuing more securities, which in the long arc of time pushes the premium back down. A low premium tells MSTR to slow down or halt security issuance until a premium re-emerges. And gm.

I now emerge from my reading coma having finished Wind and Truth. View quoted note →

“The Prophet of Pain gave warning The punishment due Take heed of the early morning In time it was seen true Four winds calling to Zamora Four winds of deceit Four winds to the ghost of Tara Four winds of defeat Bow down to the thief of all men The will to be tame Bow down to the thief of all men Only one time, only one to blame I led the life unchoosen Gave the lesson to the broken I heard the words unspoken Gave the lesson to the broken I led the life unchoosen Gave the lesson to the broken I heard the words unspoken Gave the lesson to the broken The beast in the skies had risen In time it would come The lands had began their schism All bow to the fallen one”

My upcoming client report is the hardest one I’ve ever written, since Wind and Truth just came out today and all I want to do is read that. All 1300 pages of that. 😭

Christmas time in Heliopolis.

Of course bitcoin had to hit $100k at 5am local time when I was asleep. Not the worst thing to wake up to, though.