Steve

“Deter, Disrupt, or Deceive: Assessing Cyber Conflict as an Intelligence Contest” edited by Robert Chesney & Max Smeets ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Less a single work and more of a collection of cohesively structured long-form essays, this book pits some of the leading US experts on cyber operations against each other to answer one question: is it better to frame cyber actions as part of a greater “intelligence contest” or is it truly a new means for waging war? The book presents varying definitions of what constitutes intelligence operations and highlights the inherent trade-offs between secrecy and cyber activities. Cyber operations must remain secret to maintain effectiveness, yet secrecy diminishes the more cyber operations scale up in size. The authors argue this inherently limits the scope of cyber activity. If we are to disagree with their framing of cyber operations as an intelligence contest, then we must challenge our perceptions of what constitutes war. Would the Russian election interference in 2016 be construed as an act of war? This debate clearly has significant policy ramifications and highlights the difficulties nations have with competing against one another in the Information Age. Gray zone warfare has become the new normal as nations have found novel ways to compete via digital means. This book was an excellent conversation starter that presents refreshingly contrasting opinions on the subject of cyber operations. 💻⚔️

“Dark Territory: The Secret History of Cyber War” by Fred Kaplan ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Kaplan is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist who earned his PhD in Political Science from MIT. In “Dark Territory”, Kaplan explores the history of cyber warfare through an American lens. Tracing its origins during the Reagan administration to Obama’s presidency, Kaplan uses history to ask if cyber power can truly be decisive. His journalistic skills make for a thorough history—US cyber activities have their roots in the NSA and its long record of SIGINT collection. From the early days to the founding of USCYBERCOM, Kaplan highlights how policy makers were early to acknowledge yet slow to address many policy issues surrounding the new domain. One issue that repeats throughout the book is Kaplan’s conflation between information operations and cyber warfare. The former is intended to shape perceptions while the later is meant to creat physical or network effects. This misnomer also highlights the importance of clarifying between the human and electro-magnetic spectrum domains. Kaplan concludes that cyber analogies to nuclear deterrence are misguided—a point I agree with him on. Overall, this book provides an excellent primer on US cyber policy but falls short of capturing the nuances of operating in the digital realm. 🇺🇸💻

“China’s Digital Nationalism” by Florian Schneider ⭐️⭐️⭐️ What is nationalism and is it a top-down or a bottom-up social phenomenon? What influence does communication technologies have on nationalism? Florian Schneider, a Dutch university professor specializing in political communication in China, tackles these questions in this book. China, known for its “Great Firewall” and authoritarian regulation of its citizens’ internet access, provides a compelling case study to explore these questions. Schneider shows that despite popular belief, there is a significant bottom-up swell of nationalism within China. Furthermore, his analysis shows that Chinese policies have been effective at cultivating desirable public opinions by applying a “light touch,” regulatory-speaking. The Chinese Communist Party curates the data available to its citizens while shaping incentive structures that gently push its them to accept tighter information controls in favor of daily convenience. Schneider is particularly good at defining the terminology used and provides an excellent background on the cognitive dynamics of social groups. Melvin Kranzburg once said “technology is neither good or bad, nor is it neutral.” This book proves that point and shows how a motivated central authority can shape the perceptions of a populations to suit their interests… be them good or bad. 🇨🇳⌨️

“How Data Happened: A History from the Age of Reason to the Age of Algorithms” by Chris Wiggins and Matthew L. Jones ⭐️⭐️ Chris Wiggins and Matthew Jones are professors at Columbia University teaching applied mathematics and history, respectively. They use their book to explore the historical context behind the contemporary data environment we’re largely familiar with today. Going back hundreds of years to the origins of statistics, they explore the ways data has been used and how bias has affected it at every step along the way. In doing so, the authors pose a hypothetical question: who has the responsibility over data? Individuals, corporations, and states all have a claim to stake in this new frontier so it’s fair to say the answer would include “all of the above.” Wiggins & Jones’ work does not provide a lucid explanation of data in all its current forms and uses, nor does it try to. It merely explains how quantitative methods evolved with time and the missteps along the way. While the authors don’t propose anything particularly debatable, they also don’t offer anything substantive of value to the reader—the narrative simply lacks teeth. Consequently, Wiggins & Matthews provide an interesting backdrop to the study of data… and little more. 📊📏

“Subversion: The Strategic Weaponization of Narratives” by Andreas Krieg ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Andreas Krieg is an associate professor in the School of Security Studies at King’s College, London. He uses this book to argue that subversion is, in fact, a form of warfare that the West has not adequately responded to. Krieg builds his argument on first principles—distinguishing between fact (empirically observed realities) and truth (social consensus). Building on Herbert Simon’s ideas on “bounded rationality,” Krieg layers on social and emotional biases that affect human perceptions of truth. With these foundations established, he further argues that subversion goes beyond opinion-shaping to an act of war when it results in physical violence. Two case studies are analyzed: 1️⃣ Russia’s manipulation of the 2016 US presidential election and 2️⃣ the UAE’s subversive efforts during the Arab Spring from 2010-2012. This book is rare in how it build’s its arguments on first principles, ensuring the reader knows exactly the cognitive and social phenomena that is being discussed. While Krieg’s “line in the sand” on what constitutes warfare may be promlematic for believers in a more subjective continuum of conflict, his arguments are nonetheless well-made and compelling. This is a solid read that open’s your mind to the subtler ways with which nations compete in the Information Age. 🎙️📡

“Total Cold War: Eisenhower’s Secret Propaganda Battle at Home and Abroad” by Kenneth Osgood ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Do you ever recall seeing animated cartoons from the 1950s depicting American life? They usually had a corny male narrator speaking in a mid-Atlantic accent, showcasing the wonders that financial freedom and self-sovereignty brought to the public. Well, it may not come as a surprise that those productions were part of a consolidated information campaign run by the US Information Agency (USIA) during the Eisenhower administration. Kenneth Osgood is a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and uses this book to explore Eisenhower’s integrated approach towards psychological warfare both at home and abroad. He shows how the CIA and USIA coordinated to execute both “black” (covert disinformation) and “white” (overt propaganda) information operations across the world. While the CIA used influence to topple left-leaning governments in the 3rd world, the USIA was spreading a positive image of what it meant to be an American. All this, he shows, was motivated by the fear of communism and a perceived need to “fight fire with fire” so the neutral nations would choose the West as their preferred partner. This was an outstanding book that puts into context many aspects of the post-WWII order. It turns out that part of what “made America great” during this time was a concerted campaign to make people think it was… good food for thought and a reminder to seek objectivity. 🗣️🙊

“Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare” by Seth G. Jones ⭐️⭐️ Seth Jones, a veteran of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, wrote this book to explore the foundations of current irregular warfare strategy and tactics through the lens of three of its foremost practitioners. Russia’s Valery Gerasimov, Iran’s (late) Qaseem Soleimani, and China’s Zhang Youxia are analyzed through a constructivist lens to explore how their personal backgrounds shaped the tactics the US has confronted on the battlefield (and at home). In doing so, Jones stressed the power of ideas as they shape ideologies. The power of personality is also highlighted as a potent vehicle to carry and deliver those ideas to the masses. While this book did not deliver any profound realizations or insightful recommendations, it does offer a useful appreciation of the problem adversarial irregular warfare poses to the US. Consider this a good “airport read.” 🇷🇺🇮🇷🇨🇳

“War from the Ground Up: Twenty-First-Century Combat as Politics” by Emile Simpson ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Military theorists have pontificated on the nature and purpose of war for centuries, if not millennia. Clausewitz’ famously quote, “war is politics by other means” still holds merit today. Emile Simpson, a former British infantry officer with experience in Helmand Province, wrote this book to expand on the Clausewitzian interpretation of war and update the discussion for contemporary irregular warfare. Simpson argues that there are two purposes for war: 1️⃣ to reach a political end state and 2️⃣ to leverage force as a form of political communication. He argues that violence itself is a language and the act of applying violence is subsequently communication. Simpson’s interpretation of war’s intricacies builds on Clausewitz’ foundational work in an impressively nuanced way. His constructivist take has important implications to strategists and planners alike. He stresses importance of enemy perspectives when assessing one’s own strategy, describing armed conflicts as a “trial” where each side has their own judge. His characterization of irregular warfare as simply “armed domestic politics” is also noteworthy for its implications as the US reflects on its Global War on Terror. This book is a perfect companion to Clausewitz’ “On War” and should be read shortly after ol’ Dead Carl’s foundational treatise on the subject. 🗣️⚔️

“Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists” by Audrey Kurth Cronin ⭐️ Cronin is an international security professor from American University and attempts to use this book to explore how individuals and groups who engage in political violence have made use of emerging technologies. In doing so, she hopes to shed light on how they’re likely to do so in the future. She lays out a 12-point “lethal empowerment theory” intended to predict if and when a technology is likely to diffuse to violent extremists. She tests this theory on two case studies (which notably appear to be cherry-picked for their validity): the disruptive invention and diffusion of 1️⃣ dynamite and the 2️⃣ AK-47. While the case studies are interesting, Cronin’s “theory” is merely a long list of attributes that technology are likely to exhibit if they are to be diffused. This book contains a lot of exemplar historical analysis to support a non-existent theory that proves a commonly understood point: technology is inherently deflationary. It’s price (and consequent rate of diffusion) crashes to its marginal cost of production. Nuclear weapons are difficult to develop and manufacture, thus their diffusion is limited. AK-47s on the other hand, have only grown cheaper and thus have diffused at higher rates. This book was once coined a “dad book” due to the ease of reading and somewhat interesting content that makes it a compelling airport purchase. Do yourself a favor: pick out a different book. 🧨🔫

“The Forgotten Front: Patron-Client Relationships in Counterinsurgency” by Walter C. Ladwig III ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Much of the literature on counterinsurgency (COIN) focuses on the dynamic between a foreign population and a visiting military power. But what of the incumbent foreign government supposedly being bolstered during such operations? Ladwig, an Oxford-taught lecturer on international relations, addresses this literary gap and explores how agency theory impacts patron-client dynamics when one country provides aid to another during an insurgency. Following a very well-researched literature review, he uses the principle-agent framework to develop a theory on what types of aid actual result in more influence over a client state. Ladwig then compares inducements and conditional aid in three case studies: post-WWII Philippines, Vietnam, and 1980s El Salvador. His analysis shows that conditional aid—not mere “gifts” or grants—are the only forms of support that actually result in desirable behaviors and influence over a client state. Ladwig makes five policy recommendations based on these findings: 1️⃣ expect tense relations with the client 2️⃣ do not fear coercing allies during a crisis 3️⃣ make conditions clear, measurable, and realistic 4️⃣ prepare for internal domestic opposition to policies abroad 5️⃣ cultivate ties with local reformers. This was a very interesting read that correlates international relations with easily-understood psychological dynamics we all can relate to as individuals. Ladwig is particularly kind to the reader and not only explains what his research choices were, but why he made them. This is a fantastic book that sheds light on relationships between weak and strong states, particularly when insecurity is at the forefront. 🤝🎁

“Pacification in Algeria, 1956-1958” by David Galula & “Modern Warfare: A French View of Counterinsurgency” by Roger Trinquier ⭐️⭐️⭐️ The French, like most former colonial powers, had a wealth of experience conducting counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in their former territories as their empires decayed. Galula was an experienced captain in the French army in the 1950s when he was sent to Algeria as a company commander to “pacify” the rising political rebellion there. In his personal recounting of his experiences, Galula identifies four basic principles of COIN: 1️⃣ the population is the objective 2️⃣ support from the population isn’t spontaneous; it must be organized 3️⃣ minority opposition will emerge 4️⃣ counterinsurgency forces can rarely (if ever) afford to control the entire territory. Galula’s memoir provides a good example of the temporal nature of COIN—progress quickly dissolves away without the consistent application of forces. Another French officer, Trinquier, was more senior to Galula when he wrote of his experiences in both Vietnam and Algeria. Trinquier attempts to identity irregular warfare as a fundamental paradigm shift in the nature of war, as originally theorized by the likes of Clausewitz and Jomini. Where Galula focused on empowering populations, Trinquier spoke primarily on controlling them. His prescriptions reek of colonial hubris and Francophone racism, yet still provide an important data point in irregular war theory. In fact, Trinquier‘s backward ideologies only reinforce the points made by Galula: a counterinsurgency is ultimately a battle over who can provide for the needs of the people. 🇫🇷🇩🇿

“The Terrorist’s Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations” by Jacob N. Shapiro ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Part of what makes TV shows like “The Office” so entertaining is how relatable (albeit exaggerated) the characters’ experiences can be. Organizations of all kinds, after all, are comprised of multiple individuals with a myriad of preferences and insecurities. With that in mind, why would terrorist organizations be any different? Jacob Shapiro is an international affairs professor at Princeton with a background in economics. He tackles this somewhat uncomfortable subject in hopes of shedding light on the internal organizational dynamics within terrorist organizations in hopes of informing future counterinsurgency policies. The “terrorist’s dilemma”, as defined by Shapiro, is the constant trade-off of efficiency and control in favor of secrecy (and consequently security) within a covert organization. The dynamics of theses trade-offs create challenges for terrorist leaders that can be exploited by their adversaries. At the core of this phenomenon is the concept of individual diverging preferences within any organization. Just as Dwight and Jim diverged in their preferences to the detriment of the Dunder Mifflin Paper Company, so too can the divergent interests of leaders and field operatives within a terrorist organization undermine their overall effectiveness. This was a well-researched and ambitious book that provides a refreshingly constructivist treatment on organizational decision-making. 💼📝

“Guerrilla Warfare” by Che Guevara & “Revolution in the Revolution?” By Régis Debray ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Che was an Argentinian Marxist revolutionary who was very active in Latin America during the 1950s & 60s. Following his success in the Cuban revolution, Che went on to Bolivia in an attempt to spread his revolution. It was there that he met his demise, ultimately by failing to follow the guidance he himself lays out in this book. “Guerrilla Warfare” was written without any knowledge of Mao’s work, yet shows striking similarities in their approach towards irregular warfare. While Mao focused on the “why”, Che wrote extensively on “how” a revolution is to be conducted. Debray is a French journalist who spent considerable time in Latin America documenting the revolutionary efforts on the continent. He is particularly critical on the kind of communism spreading in South America and rejects generalizations being made between that and Soviet-style Trotskyism. To Debray, communism in Latin America is a rural—not urban—issue that requires a different approach. This too mirrors Mao’s work in China yet there is still significantly less focus on the people involved. In Latin America, revolutions were small and led by even smaller bands of guerrillas… not a general uprising of the population. These books offer a glimpse into how cultural nuances change the character of irregular warfare in different settings. 🇨🇺✊🏼

“The Evolution of a Revolt” by T.E. Lawrence & “On Protracted Warfare” by Mao Tse-Tung ⭐️⭐️⭐️ T.E. Lawrence, popularly known as “Lawrence of Arabia,” was a British soldier who wrote about his experiences the Middle East fighting the Ottoman Empire during WWI. In this work, Lawrence lays out how a small group of Arabs ultimately fought back a numerically and technologically superior Turkish force by employing “unconventional” tactics. Flipping traditional military theory on its head, Lawrence writes on how tactics in irregular warfare can achieve strategic effects, ultimately buying time for a more regular engagement and victory. He highlights this point by breaking down the algebraic, biological, and psychological elements of irregular warfare. Meanwhile, Mao, the first chairmen of the Chinese Communist Party, wrote his multi-vocal piece with numerous audiences in mind during the Japanese occupation of WWII. Mao is simultaneously cultivating a mass movement in rural China while also garnering support from an international audience (primarily the USSR). He lays out a style of irregular warfare that is similar to that described by Lawrence, but places a heavy ideological focus on the power of the people themselves. For Mao, China’s greatest asset is the sheer volume of their populace… an asset he was not afraid to “throw into the fire” when it suited his political aims. These two writings form the operational underpinnings of how irregular warfare works and when it is best applied. 🇨🇳👳🏽‍♂️

“The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements” by Eric Hoffer & “Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland” by Christopher R. Browning ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ What can drive ordinary people to do unthinkable things? These two authors approach this question from different angles. Hoffer, a self-taught philosopher and longshoreman by trade, characterizes the nature of mass movements from a theoretical perspective. He specifically highlights the psychology of vulnerability that draws people to and binds them within mass movements. According to him, the combination of perceived insecurity and hope for a better future are required for any would-be fanatic’s indoctrination into a movement. Hoffer spends a significant amount of time discussing the psychology of poverty in all its nuances, but stops short of offering any case studies. That said, his theoretical grounding is a compelling foundation for any study of the subject. Browning, a historian at UNC Chapel Hill, wrote “Ordinary Men” after meticulous research on a Nazi-controlled police battalion during WWII. PB 101 was comprised of notably unremarkable, average, middle-aged men with no history of violence or genocidal tendencies. Despite their relative normalcy, the men of PB 101 committed heinous atrocities during the holocaust and murdered thousands of Polish and Russian Jews. The combination of these two works show that it doesn’t take a genetic predisposition or particular upbringing to commit heinous crimes… everyone is susceptible to societal pressures when the environment condones such behavior. These books also show the subjectivity of morality—the difference between right and wrong may not be as clear as we idealize in the moment. These books are a compelling read that holds validity for today’s mass movements and polarized political environment. ✊

“The Logic of Violence in Civil War” by Stathis N. Kalyvas ⭐️⭐️⭐️ It’s widely observed that wars, particularly civil wars, are fraught with violence. What purpose does such barbarity serve when we fight amongst ourselves? Kalyvas, a Greek political scientist who taught at Oxford, attempts to answer this daunting question. Following an exhaustively researched study, he concludes that violence isn’t an outcome or resultant of otherwise peaceful preconditions—it is an inherently human process. While violence is often applied indiscriminately, Kalyvas hypothesizes that such acts are self-defeating in the long term context of a civil war. Selective violence (specifically, violence that is perceived as selective) is thus more effective at garnering control over a territory and population. He lays out a cyclical theory: control fosters collaboration, collaboration yields information, information is used to selectively apply violence, and selectively applied violence generates more control. While Kalyvas’ theory for violence is limited in its scope, the taxonomy he created is useful for discussing the purpose of violence in any conflict. Rather than getting hung-up on moral impediments, this book takes a sober look at our violent reality and explains why it will continue to be so. ⚔️

“Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War” by Robert Pape ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Bob Pape is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. A self-professed realist, he attempts to quantifiably settle long-standing questions on the effectiveness of strategic bombing campaigns. Pape identifies four bombing strategies: denial of an adversary’s military objective, punishment of their population, holding an enemy’s high-value targets at risk, and decapitation of an enemy’s leadership. He then categorizes and analyzes the outcomes of 33 air campaigns and performs a deep-dive on five notable US cases: Germany, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. Pape concludes that in all instances, strategic bombing does not work. In fact, his findings show that only “denial” strategies were effective at all in changing enemy behavior. Pape’s book is still considered controversial, most notably due to his failure to differentiate between the varying degrees of intensity with respect to national interests. Despite the shortfall, his work is compelling and offers insights useful in predicting the effectiveness of current air campaigns in Ukraine and Gaza. While I can’t say that one truly can “bomb to win”, this book certainly makes a good case for and against air power strategies. 🛩️📉

“The Chemical Weapons Taboo” by Richard M. Price ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Taboos are an interesting social phenomenon. They evoke strong feelings of right and wrong, but we often cannot explain exactly what makes them so. Price, a constructivist IR professor at the University of British Columbia, explores the taboo of chemical weapons in the 20th century. Departing from common realist and liberal explanations, Price shows the normative power of the international community in shaping taboos and expected state behavior. He traces the extensive use of chemical warfare during WWI, its surprisingly limited use during WWII in the Italo-Ethiopian War, and the Iran-Iraq War. Interestingly, international bans on chemical weapons and poisons alike stem from top-down (not bottom-up) societal processes where elites sought to dictate the terms of warfare. Price demonstrates both the power and subjectivity of morality in the minds of societies. The norms that shape taboos and the legitimation of actors who violate them highlight the dynamic natures of such faux pas. Despite the continued taboo, chemical weapons usage still occurs albeit in a very limited context. The power of taboo applies to other weapons of war as well. The nuclear taboo is well-known and respected but is there a taboo on the use of biological weapons today? It is likely that these international norms are yet to be formed. Price’s narrative is admittedly drawn-out but he nonetheless sparks an interesting discussion on the role that ideas have in shaping the strategies states employ. ☣️😷

“The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War” by Nicholas Mulder ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ What makes certain actions in war human or morale? Does the way we exert force on an enemy matter, or do end results speak for themselves? Mulder explores these questions in his work tracing the history of economic sanctions through Ancient Greece to the current age. Like modern strategic bombing and drone warfare, economic sanctions have become the preferred “easy button” policy choice for decision-makers thanks to their relative low cost and perceived high benefit. Herein lies the folly: history has shown that targeting populations in hopes of coercing enemy leadership rarely works. If firebombing the Japanese couldn’t force a surrender, why would economic sanctions or blockade have any measurable political effect? Sanctioning of Turkey during WWII resulted in nearly 250,000 civilian deaths due to starvation, yet this was deemed more “moral” since such casualties were only indirectly the result of Allied actions. Mulder concludes that the unpredictable nature of sanctions’ 2nd and 3rd-order effects make it less the potent political tool than its frequent use would seem to predict. Juxtaposing Mulder’s arguments against current sanctions against Russia presents an interesting thought experiment: are sanctions actually affecting the Putin regime’s decision-making? What costs are the West bearing due to their choices (like removing 🇷🇺 from SWIFT)? Sanctions—like air power—are effective only when they are directly linked to political objectives. Unless the political objective in WWII was to kill thousands of Turks, sanctioning proved to be an ineffective strategy. 💸📉

“The Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century” by Brad Roberts ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Roberts is an interesting author known for bridging the gap between academia and policy-makers in the federal government. As his only published book, “A Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons” provides a historical analysis of U.S. nuclear policy from the end of the Cold War in 1991 to the Obama administration. He takes a refreshingly operationalized approach to nuclear deterrence by exploring nuclear deterrence “theories of victory” for both the U.S. and its adversaries (DPRK, Iran, Russia, China) to identify pressure points for coercive leverage. Roberts categorizes activities across the competition continuum into three bins: gray, red, & black-and-white, representing escalation tiers. Ultimately, Roberts makes the case that the U.S. nuclear posture is not currently built to perform the tasks asked of it. Specifically, he calls for an increased supply of low-yield weapons along with dual-capable aircraft permanently stationed in places like the Korean Peninsula. This was a compelling read that highlights the continuity between the Obama & Biden administrations, while simultaneously acknowledging the realities brought to the forefront during the Trump administration. 🛩️☢️