Observation: for about 3 weeks I’ve been like a rabbit in headlights, frozen almost, fearful, as the Bitcoin price plummeted.
Only now am I managing to wrestle back control of myself, and start to think rationally.
Huge lessons being dished out by the bear mkt of Q1 2026…
No hedge
No backup plan
No cashflow forecast
No cash reserve
No tracking of historical spending
Sitting on a five bagger of uncrystalised gains for over a year, made me complacent, and I fell for the hopium of higher prices. 150/175/250/even the 400k that was banded around.
I ignored my own advice. Classic ego move. I thought I knew better. I ignored warning signs.
SCombined with shame as things went the wrong way
Ahead I have commitments
- Fixed capex in a renovation
- Monthly expenses
- Holiday bookings
All of which just got a lot more expensive in Bitcoin terms
Ouch
Panic stations even
Thankfully I’ve mellowed out. The situation is my fault. Avoidable. Yes. But reality. And mine to navigate.
Your vision is to be a “word class investor” of humanistic, intellectual, and financial capital, figure it out Jake!
I think the best part: all these failures, are areas I was wrong, and that I can work on for the future. The next time my net assets are 60% higher from here, I know exactly what I’ll do
Reallocate to:
- cashflow
- cash reserves
- cap growth
- speculative
- cap protection
Ultimately I am grateful for these mistakes. Through failure we learn. Indeed, yes it’s at a cost to the balance sheet, but these lessons are a form of intellectual capital
I am better for it
The cost now, will actually make me far more financial capital in the future
Lastly. Beyond blessed with my wife. I’ve made too many mistakes to list here, against her intuition. I was wrong. I will do better
Onwards friends
💪🏻
Jake Woodhouse
jakewoodhouse@primal.net
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Observations on capital allocation.
Markets • Business • Bitcoin
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Financial Engineering and The Four-Year Cycle - Caleb (JWP 115)
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Learn a unique investment strategy from Caleb that combines traditional finance expertise with Bitcoin, plus how to generate cash flow and build wealth through a covered call option strategy, and explore the intersection of sound money, time preference, and personal freedom.
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Thank you
Best,
Jake
"Everyone thinks they're great until they get punched in the face."
Mike Tyson
Maybe this is the key as an investor: it’s ok to be down, because you’re not out
💪🏻
Everything that has happened in the last week is a gift
Holes in strategy highlighted
Places to improve identified
Next step: Build back better
Iterate
Include what was missing
Update yourself
Nothing valuable is easy
🙏🏻
Who’s hiring atm?
Need to pickup some work
Not going to lie. The last week has been very stressful
This too shall pass…
I wasn’t hedged properly vs a large Bitcoin drawdown
Big mistake
One of the biggest lessons from last year: if you're sitting on a 5x gain, it means nothing, if you don't "take the profit", especially if the underlieing is as volatile as Bitcoin
I am a parent
I am a problem-solver
I am not defined by my portfolio value
Last night, as I struggled to sleep, the only thing that actually calmed me was when I started thinking about God
A higher power
Whatever journey this is that I am on, as I released myself to the experience, my nervous system responded with a knowing
You’ll be totally fine
This to shall pass
The more time that goes by, the more open I become
I would never have guessed this
You are not your money
Bitcoin is 45% off it's ATH in Oct 2026
My net asset calc shows 60% off ATH in Jan 2026
Why?
- Bitcoin has drawndown
- I've re-allocated to RE (an expensive process)
- we had higher than expected expenses last year
- we had a load of fun spending some gains
But today, ooft, my net asset calc is very similar to 2023, so it's gone backwards in terms of the fiat denomination
Hard one to take
Barely slept last night in fact
So, today, I am taking action, not surrendering
A new short-term plan must be made
The planned renovation altered
An updated strategy to keep up momentum
No-one said this stuff was easy
Trying to step into my better self of the future
Let's go!