Maybe there should be some editing done...
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Interestingly, when we recorded this, I didnt realise how poorly prepared for a price drawdown so I wasn't ready "either way"
A great case of you live and learn
Jake Woodhouse
jakewoodhouse@primal.net
npub1ltz3...k4fh
Observations on capital allocation.
Markets • Business • Bitcoin
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Heard a bunch of second hand stories of plebs being wiped out by leverage
Intense for them
After this price drawdown, and remainder of the bear market, where is price going to be?
Ofc no-one knows, but I need to make some forecasts in order to manage capex and expenditure expectations
Where would you put the USD/BTC price every 6 months for the next 5 years?
GM
Touch sand
Reminding me to stop stressing about what is out of my control
Sending top vibes
Have an amazing day


We’re not wrong
We’re jus early
Bitcoin is a BUY
Another lesson in hindsight: I should have an easily accessible margin provider
Be that against BTC or any other asset
Had one been better prepared, the panic sell off, actually presented a great buying dip, had one had the dry powder
Bit of a relief rally happening this Sunday?
Feels like it
As the only large macro asset that trades over the weekend
Some nimble capital is jumping in
Downloaded an app called Pocketsmith to track expenses
What gets measured gets managed
Given the drawdown, it’s highlighted how insane it was that I wasn’t tracking this
Having one’s highest ever net wealth calc each week lured me into complacency
Having a clear grip on monthly costs will be a key tool for the future
And is obvious drawdown protection
Given you can calc future cash flows more accurately, and see when liquidity is needed
I am already a better version of myself
Have to get better again
One of the few positive bits of information I’ve found this last few weeks
Is that we’ve actually been in a bear market for quite a while
So although I’ve only just realised
The duration to the next bull is not as far off as it might seem
Small wins
But they’re helping this morning
Really hitting home why they’re called “hedge funds”
They perform on the way up
And on the way down
Going forwards, with Bitcoin as ones main asset, I will be far more aware of how to navigate the way up, AND the way down
We’ve got a decade at least of this volatility
Equip yourself now
And there is going to be many opportunities in the future
Do you think Gold can act as a slingshot for Bitcoin?
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Enjoyed learning about the use of Gold as “ballast” to a portfolio
@npub1qh5s...eh9r
Observation: for about 3 weeks I’ve been like a rabbit in headlights, frozen almost, fearful, as the Bitcoin price plummeted.
Only now am I managing to wrestle back control of myself, and start to think rationally.
Huge lessons being dished out by the bear mkt of Q1 2026…
No hedge
No backup plan
No cashflow forecast
No cash reserve
No tracking of historical spending
Sitting on a five bagger of uncrystalised gains for over a year, made me complacent, and I fell for the hopium of higher prices. 150/175/250/even the 400k that was banded around.
I ignored my own advice. Classic ego move. I thought I knew better. I ignored warning signs.
SCombined with shame as things went the wrong way
Ahead I have commitments
- Fixed capex in a renovation
- Monthly expenses
- Holiday bookings
All of which just got a lot more expensive in Bitcoin terms
Ouch
Panic stations even
Thankfully I’ve mellowed out. The situation is my fault. Avoidable. Yes. But reality. And mine to navigate.
Your vision is to be a “word class investor” of humanistic, intellectual, and financial capital, figure it out Jake!
I think the best part: all these failures, are areas I was wrong, and that I can work on for the future. The next time my net assets are 60% higher from here, I know exactly what I’ll do
Reallocate to:
- cashflow
- cash reserves
- cap growth
- speculative
- cap protection
Ultimately I am grateful for these mistakes. Through failure we learn. Indeed, yes it’s at a cost to the balance sheet, but these lessons are a form of intellectual capital
I am better for it
The cost now, will actually make me far more financial capital in the future
Lastly. Beyond blessed with my wife. I’ve made too many mistakes to list here, against her intuition. I was wrong. I will do better
Onwards friends
💪🏻