The same technical analysts that had a chart saying 180k was inevitable Are now, mhaving said we were in a bull market a few weeks back, are pointing at charts saying it’s going to 40k More and more I think of it as pointless noise

Where’s that meme I saw recently of the Goldmans boss admitting AI has shortened 6 people’s work for 6 weeks pre-ipo by 95%?

Last few weeks has been some of the most intense I’ve experienced Got up at 4am to work on what I will do And there it was Clear as day An income strategy that was a niche, leverages my skills and network, plus could be something built for short-term cash and long-term value Through the pain, comes the opportunity Or at least a piece of the puzzle has been revealed that wasn’t clear before Bring it on

Maybe there should be some editing done... npub1m7g4p6xdh9jf4ghjyvs8ks5l594j9aauhg3crdq98tpkxjezfvfsdvm0wr Interestingly, when we recorded this, I didnt realise how poorly prepared for a price drawdown so I wasn't ready "either way" A great case of you live and learn

Heard a bunch of second hand stories of plebs being wiped out by leverage Intense for them

After this price drawdown, and remainder of the bear market, where is price going to be? Ofc no-one knows, but I need to make some forecasts in order to manage capex and expenditure expectations Where would you put the USD/BTC price every 6 months for the next 5 years?

GM Touch sand Reminding me to stop stressing about what is out of my control Sending top vibes Have an amazing day

We’re not wrong We’re jus early Bitcoin is a BUY

Another lesson in hindsight: I should have an easily accessible margin provider Be that against BTC or any other asset Had one been better prepared, the panic sell off, actually presented a great buying dip, had one had the dry powder

Bit of a relief rally happening this Sunday? Feels like it As the only large macro asset that trades over the weekend Some nimble capital is jumping in

Downloaded an app called Pocketsmith to track expenses What gets measured gets managed Given the drawdown, it’s highlighted how insane it was that I wasn’t tracking this Having one’s highest ever net wealth calc each week lured me into complacency Having a clear grip on monthly costs will be a key tool for the future And is obvious drawdown protection Given you can calc future cash flows more accurately, and see when liquidity is needed I am already a better version of myself Have to get better again

One of the few positive bits of information I’ve found this last few weeks Is that we’ve actually been in a bear market for quite a while So although I’ve only just realised The duration to the next bull is not as far off as it might seem Small wins But they’re helping this morning

Really hitting home why they’re called “hedge funds” They perform on the way up And on the way down Going forwards, with Bitcoin as ones main asset, I will be far more aware of how to navigate the way up, AND the way down We’ve got a decade at least of this volatility Equip yourself now And there is going to be many opportunities in the future

Do you think Gold can act as a slingshot for Bitcoin? npub1m7g4p6xdh9jf4ghjyvs8ks5l594j9aauhg3crdq98tpkxjezfvfsdvm0wr

Observation: for about 3 weeks I’ve been like a rabbit in headlights, frozen almost, fearful, as the Bitcoin price plummeted. Only now am I managing to wrestle back control of myself, and start to think rationally. Huge lessons being dished out by the bear mkt of Q1 2026… No hedge No backup plan No cashflow forecast No cash reserve No tracking of historical spending Sitting on a five bagger of uncrystalised gains for over a year, made me complacent, and I fell for the hopium of higher prices. 150/175/250/even the 400k that was banded around. I ignored my own advice. Classic ego move. I thought I knew better. I ignored warning signs. SCombined with shame as things went the wrong way Ahead I have commitments - Fixed capex in a renovation - Monthly expenses - Holiday bookings All of which just got a lot more expensive in Bitcoin terms Ouch Panic stations even Thankfully I’ve mellowed out. The situation is my fault. Avoidable. Yes. But reality. And mine to navigate. Your vision is to be a “word class investor” of humanistic, intellectual, and financial capital, figure it out Jake! I think the best part: all these failures, are areas I was wrong, and that I can work on for the future. The next time my net assets are 60% higher from here, I know exactly what I’ll do Reallocate to: - cashflow - cash reserves - cap growth - speculative - cap protection Ultimately I am grateful for these mistakes. Through failure we learn. Indeed, yes it’s at a cost to the balance sheet, but these lessons are a form of intellectual capital I am better for it The cost now, will actually make me far more financial capital in the future Lastly. Beyond blessed with my wife. I’ve made too many mistakes to list here, against her intuition. I was wrong. I will do better Onwards friends 💪🏻

Financial Engineering and The Four-Year Cycle - Caleb (JWP 115) npub1m7g4p6xdh9jf4ghjyvs8ks5l594j9aauhg3crdq98tpkxjezfvfsdvm0wr Learn a unique investment strategy from Caleb that combines traditional finance expertise with Bitcoin, plus how to generate cash flow and build wealth through a covered call option strategy, and explore the intersection of sound money, time preference, and personal freedom. 0:08 Caleb on Applying Covered Call Options to Bitcoin 1:40 Utilizing Traditional Skills to Build a Bitcoin Position 6:59 Financial Engineering and Investing in Bitcoin 10:32 Replicating a Bitcoin Position Through Cash Flow 12:37 Creating Income with a Pure Bitcoin Buy and Hold 21:36 Counterparty Risk in Traditional Investments 28:51 Selling Consulting and Questioning Time 35:59 Living in a Debt-Based Society 42:37 Pricing Options and the Four-Year Cycle 51:33 Stepping into Parenthood If you want to give value-4-value: Via Fountain: boosts and all streams are split 50% with the guest Via Nostr: zaps always welcome Thank you Best, Jake

"Everyone thinks they're great until they get punched in the face." Mike Tyson