Been off Nostr for a while but have been continuing to update

MSTR: RIP or RIPPING?

Recent recovery has seen MSTR recover to "only" $3.2bn down total on the prefs, and Strive $176m down. MSTR average BTC purchase price plus dividends paid to date puts the breakeven price at $97,200, and Strive at $99,300. The similarities don't end there - looking at the current value of BTC bought via the issuance, vs overall obligations, MSTR sit at just under 80%, Strive at just under 78%. Strive is ripping but MSTR is still muted - and the reason may be that the market knows they are still massively in the hole for STRC, and the returns still need to show they can outpace the dividends. Once these figures get to breakeven (at which point of course STRC would be well back at par) - watch out. Comments welcomed on the site - to my knowledge noone else is tracking this vital metric of the prefs and whether they can pay their way for the common shareholders of these companies.

Strategy have currently reached an unwelcome milestone at present - they have hit a $5bn notional loss when looking at the prefs and dividends paid, versus the bitcoin that they bought when issuing those prefs. See

MSTR: RIP or RIPPING?

No wonder that the share price has been rinsed. However, this is a wholly notional number, and it’s a marathon not a sprint. Also updated the Strive tab for their massive buy this week, along with updating for cash and STRC holdings. #mstr #strc #strive

Have made a couple of updates to

MSTR: RIP or RIPPING?

Firstly, have added a required Bitcoin ARR to calculate when the project forward button is used. This illustrates a facet of the 11.5% STRC rate that many do not think about when they conceptualise it as a pretty high interest rate - it doesn’t compound. Hence - based on position to date, if we look 20 years into the future the breakeven Bitcoin annual rate of return to match the prefs plus dividends from the current price is only around 7% p.a. This is an underrated component of the maths - over a 20 year term MSTR only need Bitcoin to appreciate at USD money supply growth to keep pace with current dividends and not leave the equity holders out of pocket from issuing the prefs. Secondly, Strive has demonstrated itself a very interesting player in the space with the move to daily dividends. Have added a separate Strive tab with SATA so users can monitor similar performance for those prefs and dividends. #mstr #strc #bitcoin #strive #sata

MSTR Preference share tracker updated for the latest mini-buy announced on Monday - see

MSTR: RIP or RIPPING?

As time goes on - the performance of the bitcoin bought by the prefs vs the principle plus dividends accrued to date Will inevitably be THE game to decide the fate of the common equity. Currently $2.1bn in the hole, but the game is long. #mstr #strc #saylor

MSTR added 3,273 btc today - not likely to hit any headlines given the last couple of weeks, but it’s still approaching 0.5% increase and a huge amount if annualised at that level. Taken through the lens of the preference share tracker, this latest buy would extend the runway on the dividend coverage output, but makes no difference of course to the general prefs P/L, which in my view holds the ultimate destiny for the company. Bitcoin outperforms the prefs on a very long time frame, and MSTR wins hands down. If it fails to, the common equity bleeds, as shown over the last 12 months. For the tracker see -

MSTR: RIP or RIPPING?

#mstr #strategy #saylor #strc

Keen to hear feedback on this MSTR / Strategy preference share tracker I’ve just created.

MSTR: RIP or RIPPING?

It looks at the performance of MSTR’s prefs vs the Bitcoin they bought at the time of each issuance. Which of course is not the whole story as the Bitcoin is not tethered to it in any way, but over the long term it is surely key to equity performance to outperform the dividends. It allows you to adjust Bitcoin price, date and STRC interest rate to see outcomes. At present they are about $2.4bn down on pref issuance - which of course is reflected by the share price movement in last 12 months.

Thanks to @Bitcoin Policy UK for putting out an abridged version of my article on the BBC’s Moneybox “Understanding Crypto” episode, which can be seen here

The BBC’s MoneyBox “Understanding Crypto” Episode And What It Missed About Bitcoin

The BBC remains one of the most influential media institutions in the UK.

Original (much longer, with transcripts from the episode) can be seen at bitcoinactuary.co.uk

I’ve now established a website with all my articles from the last few years - bitcoinactuary.co.uk It’s not much, but it’s honest work.. And new article just published - the BBC and Bitcoin. #bbc #moneybox

A new article of mine published in Bitcoin magazine - the return of the Tontine! Could be a very interesting development in the pensions space and a logical option for bitcoiners in retirement also.

Bitcoin Magazine

The Return Of The Tontine - A Natural Retirement Option For Bitcoiners?

What are Tontines, and how could bitcoin backed Tontines provide an answer to the question of retirement in an increasingly unstable world?

#tontines #pensions

Thoughts on SWC Bitcoin based convertible debt as announced this week in the UK.. This is a loan of $21m worth of Bitcoin, so let’s say around 180 btc and increases their stack around 8-9%. It’s at zero interest in Bitcoin terms. The conversion sits at 5% above the equity price from the lenders point of view, and can be triggered once 50% above from the companies point of view and only after 6 months for this latter option. Basically, the binary way to look at it is as to whether it converts or not - if it does, the company gets an extra atm at around 200p. If not, the loan just gets paid back with minimal loss in Bitcoin terms. Why would the lender convert? If the shares have performed better than btc. Why would the company convert? As long as the effective purchase of bitcoin at the conversion price is accretive to shareholders. Strikes me there are some edge cases where the lender could lose in btc terms but they are marginal - eg equity goes up 55%, but btc goes up by even more - lender ends up with the shares and not the btc? Be interesting to see if there are further of these and on slightly better terms for the company - ie ends up being a more accretive atm if converted. #swc #btc

The audacity of $STRC / Stretch, allowing the market to set the interest rate🤯 Somewhere up in the clouds Mises, Hayek and Rothbard have read the prospectus… and they’re smiling. @Saifedean Ammous

295 billion teeth 🦷 in the world (approx) Only 21 million Bitcoin. Gotta love the FT🙄 cc @Joe Nakamoto

Lots of fairly inane chat about #msty at the moment. Just bear in mind what the underlying is, and that in general terms, at varying times in the market buyers of calls can profit, sometimes sellers of calls, but unlikely both at the same time. My conclusion is that MSTY holders are likely to end up underperforming #MSTR, and are likely thinking in $ fiat terms. Just like a trader who buys Bitcoin at 10k, sells at 20k, buys at 30k, sells at 50k, buys at 60k sells at 80k, and probably thinks they are some sort of genius.

#bitcoin

As #MSTR announced the first #$STRK preference share at the market offering today, some thoughts on how this might play out in the coming months. Firstly, $11m is extremely small as a way to start. It would take around 1,900 weeks at this level to exhaust the $21bn! But what I suspect will happen is they will continuously ramp this up in the wake of bitcoin price appreciation in the months to come. Let's consider how they might do this. The current price of STRK is $88.45, so MSTR are offering about a 9% yield in selling into the market at current levels. That price is made up of two components, essentially, the value of the perpetual fixed dividend payment of $8, and the value of potential future conversion to equity at 1/10th of the number of STRK shares held. Bear in mind if bitcoin price rises, the value of that potential conversion to equity will also rise (eventually, if MSTR traded well above $1,000, STRK might end up trading more like MSTR stock since the $8 dividend would prove so small by comparison). Just like when selling MSTR shares into the market, there is no free lunch - by selling more STRK ATM, it will depress the STRK price, and all else equal require them to pay a higher yield to the market the more they sell. Selling at $100 is clearly better for MSTR than selling at $88. What they could do though, is decide that at any level of STRK price above X, say, they will relentlessly issue the ATM in to the market. Let's say this price is $100 (which leads to the originally 8% dividend). As the MSTR share price rises, the increasing value of the equity conversion, and perhaps the increasing security coverage on the dividend payments may help them to sell more and more STRK into the market at this level. @npub18ajq...dmq0 @npub1zj4v...876g