There are no more buyers are US paper….Maybe they can force the AI’s to buy the 10 year?

Narrator: no one could have known it at the time but hyperinflation and the collapse of their civilization was the very thing that saved life on earth from the coming AI apocalypse.

….psssst…guys. 👀 👀

Prediction: by the next US presidential cycle, one of the two political parties is going to try to spin a narrative that “inflation is good for the USA. It means we’re growing”!

OMG im dying! This is from the front page of CNBC. “doing memes…throwing shade”

Bond markets are looking like they might need a little juice. 🧃 You got any juice for us Scotty? What about you, Warshy? Bitcoin like the 🧃 juice box. The juicer the better.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/mother-all-mean-reversions-commodities-have-never-been-cheap-versus-stocks Now what was that thing with commodity-like properties that has perfect scarcity and fungibility, zero counterparty risk and global accessibility/acceptance? Good luck with your future contract on pork bellies and your hedged position on wheat. I’m stacking sats!

TIL Donald Ducks aren’t even real ducks. Also, a cucumber is a fruit! What is happening?!

If the bear is truly over that will go down in my diary as the most depressing bear market yet. I tried but due to other commitments I was hardly able to grow my stack at all. I had a little DCA running but all my smash buys above $100k look kinda silly now. Oh well. Long game.

Not to go all Tom Lugano but what if what’s happened with Iran was always the plan. Everyone knew this was a fight we couldn’t win before we picked it. I knew and I have zero information asymmetry. Everyone also knows the dollar has a terminal disease but no one knows how long they can extend and pretend. Maybe they needed something that would overwhelm the ability of the system to mean revert that would trigger a dollar crisis. If that was the goal, the outcome we got is the outcome I would expect. Whoever is at the helm when it dies gets a vote in what comes next. Since Trump can only have one term, maybe the plan was to blow up the dollar as fast as possible so Bassent can be around for the reset? If that’s true, then we have to ask what system would the people pushing the button most benefit from. And my mind wanders back a few days to the sitting treasury secretary quoting our friend, Satoshi. 🤔

I keep hearing people argue that AI isn’t a bubble because the technology is real. Of course it’s real and of course it’s a bubble! We live in a bubble economy. If there isn’t a bubble being blown then the economy is in real trouble. There’s always a bubble and it’s almost always obvious where it is because it’s all anyone talks about. You can tell what part of the cycle we’re in by the people who are the most enthusiastic about it. When it’s about to pop, the dumbest of dumb money start piling in. They must keep expanding the supply of money and money is created by issuing debt. Debt needs a story. The story this year has been AI. 🤖

Moments pass quick

The year is 2042. Your daughter just turned 23 years old and is pregnant with your first grandchild. Her husband is a hardworking young man who you trust as much as you can ever trust anyone with your daughter. When he gave her a ring it was engraved on the inside with the seed words to a wallet he had built to start their life together. Both of them have completed Mi Premier Bitcoin. They’ve been running nodes and signing their own transactions since they were teenagers. They won’t inherit your stack until you die, but you want them to have their own home to raise their family. It’s time to transfer them the first meaningful chuck of Bitcoin you’ve ever spent. You have arranged a wallet ceremony. You, with your wife, your daughter and her husband start early and hike to the top of a mountain. Silence the whole way up as all of you are thinking about what this day will mean. For you, it’s the culmination of decades of struggle and preparation, for your wife it’s the pride of knowing she trusted you even when it felt wrong. For your daughter it’s the excitement of getting her first home and becoming a mom. For her husband it’s the mixed feelings of excitement and unease at having another man lessen his burden. That’s part of how you know he’s a good one. At the summit you break fast and crack some bad jokes to loosen things up. The whole way back down you talk about hopes and dreams. You talk about what it meant to be a Bitcoiner in the early days. After a dip in the river, you all enter a yurt together. In a circle you take turns rolling dice to generate entropy for a new wallet. You take your time. This process is intended to be clunky and slow. Even your wife seems patient this time. The wallet has been constructed, everyone is comfortable with the security. As the sun sets you send the transaction. It’s more than they were expecting. But still less than you have to give. Your wife snuggles against your arm. That night at dinner, you raise a toast to Satoshi, because without his gift, you would have been nobody. God looks kindly on those who give asking for nothing in return.

Iran is not fighting the US Navy. They’re fighting the US bond market, the strategic petroleum reserve, and the giant and growing pile of treasury debt. I’m no macro analyst so take what I say with a grain of salt, but it seems China has been effectively suppressing the oil market by using their own enormous reserves and dialing back domestic consumption through policy. I think the big game is who can take more pain: the US or China. I don’t know the dynamics of how it would play out, but if the US SPR runs out before Chinas and at the same time they moved to settle oil trade in gold or something tied to gold, wouldn’t that spike the oil price and lead to an inflation cycle in the US and effectively neuter our ability to maintain our empire?