Fuck off @imad from gaza🍉

Gm nostriches, happy Sunday and hope you’re taking some time on the day of rest to reflect, whether in a physical church, or in the mental sanctuary of the church of hard money and personal responsibility. Every weekend feeling like the world holds its breath before markets open on Monday, as either the latest news percolates, or the reality of the situation sets in that markets are not functioning and you really don’t want to be left holding the bag…….. Deficits rising, bond yields screaming higher, promising of growth to counteract this (through increasing unemployment?!!!?), not really materialising. Videos of debt doom loops ever more frequent, bail ins are on the cards, prepare accordingly. Blah blah blah “bond math”, doesn’t mean shit if the fiat currency underlying it goes no bid. Hard assets, self custody, sleep well. Also, bond math is not a scalar, but like inflation, a vector!!!!! Iykyk. 🫡🙌 #catstr #coffeechain starting things off on a rainy Sunday morning. Enjoy your moments of reflection.

Ga nostriches, morning run done before 7, working like an ass most of the day in the garden, didn’t like a mass of ivy, cut it down up a pretty high ladder and reviewed something much better (now need a Batman figurine to brood on it). Some great listen with @Texas Slim and @Daniel Prince , for the most part pretty good in the diet, but the fiat mine just makes me want to consume crap…….. (4 hour work week could fix that), the gut health this fascinating (also something that it turns out is related to getting good sleep). Looking into the week ahead, some painful new year prep to do, but also aiming to enthuse some young minds so not all bad, with a lovely mini side project, along side the main research projects to bring in the used of AI into real businesses, cheers @Luke Gromen for the data point of “nah, china hasn’t been making videos of Saylor dance, they use it for what everyone is scared of, production related inflation, and they are kicking our asses”.

Gm nostriches, first Saturday of the month and managed to sneak in a 5k, to check on my fitness while also testing speed, a mile in 7.09, sub 7 is a given, but is there a sub 6 potential as mentioned in #bushido? Either way, back now, #coffeechain in hand, press ups done and a little YouTube, Richard Murphy is a Keynesian toad, but like listening to the other side, doom sayer, with an emphasis on a coming crash but maybe worth a little attention. Historically bad month in September, go into Uptober with ideas of rips, and instead there is downside volatility. Great show with @BTC Sessions @Luke Gromen and @Lyn Alden giving an awesome overview, but with the September October set up, and the crawl out of the bear bottom with potential for volatility through both months (yesterday’s post), after calling the top, I’m not bettering again Luke getting his lower entry. Saying that, he has a very different level of exposure to #bitcoin than myself, “mid single digits” is not where I am….. Stay calm calm out there, question your beliefs and be wary when other suddenly change their’s, cheers @Jeff Booth , and give credence to those with strong conviction and a track records, but don’t just follow them, learn from them and ask yourself why they think the way they do……. Unsure Richard Murphy has made much money from the positions he’s taken!!!

Well, if three arrows was the actual bottom of 2022, in the same way the Feb puke may have been the actual bottom of this bear, even if we ended up going lower on both occasions. Now matching up these two dates and running things through, after 6 months of chop, the mid August break out was only 2 weeks earlier than the mid January breakout in 2023, could this be a pattern emerging. While it goes without saying it won’t repeat, but it could rhyme, some moves up with some retests through September and October feels sensible as the traders return, and if we get a pull back like 2023, could see sub $65k (don’t be washed out freaks), before a move higher and if we follow what has happened before, we could hit 1.5x the initial low, which with my maths, that would be reaching around $95k and if we’re two weeks ahead, that would pretty much be around the end of October. Hmmmm, back to 100k by white paper day? Stay calm freaks, just astronomy for men and as it’s just charts, I’m not even using crayons for this “analysis”, just looking for patterns.