There's also the UTXO set growth to consider, a problem that takes a bit longer to manifest than block size. SegWit improved the incentive there.
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Segwit did improve quite a few things.
That fix doesn't require a block size increase.
Without the discount it would still be cheaper to create a new change output than to spend an existing UTXO.
A discount with a 4x decrease for non-witness stuff would also work. That would have been a "bit" controversial though.
It kinda still is, thanks to the block size increase.
Without the block size increase, the discount could apply to all transactions