Thanks for sharing! “Confirmation bias is the worst enemy of iteration. In a Bayesian system, it’s fatal. If you only accept the data that supports your hypothesis, you’re not updating – you’re entrenching. The people who learn fastest are the ones who are most willing to be wrong…with the humility to trade conviction for information, one update at a time.”
JeffG 's avatar JeffG
They tried to bury us... They didn't know we were seeds... https://www.nydig.com/research/stone-ridge-2025-investor-letter
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I think this is only partly true. If you are slow to learn, because you require high conviction, then you should also be slow to discard beliefs (because you required high conviction). If you are fast to learn, you should be fast to discard beliefs.