Update to what is now perhaps the most important plot in bitcoin history, now with 1 and 2 std deviation bands (68 and 95% confidence intervals, and colors that AI says is pleasing and “premium”):
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Replies (11)
The power law insight is very helpful
Like guardrails on where it can go
Where is it right now? 50k?
70, but still within 1 SD
Where is 2 SD?
Like $35k!
Roughly $35,000-$135,000 is the 5-95th percentile spread.
By eyeball it looks like we are at roughly 20th percentile now.
Interesting
So the chance of further drawdown totally possible
But not probable
Ooft. That would be max pain
Yup. But if the diminishing volatility theory holds true, we won’t see it. And even if we did, it wouldn’t be entirely unexpected.
Yup. It is interesting that the -1SD is like $62k…which is roughly the level that bitcoin recently crashed to…
Typo: $235k! Doh