A Federal Reserve governor said on Thursday that more rate hikes are coming to drag inflation back to two percent. Within hours the thirty-year Treasury yield touched 5.73, its highest in twenty-four years. He does not set the price of thirty-year money. Buyers of that bond do, and they have decided the state will pay more to borrow for a generation. A policy rate is a decree about tonight. The long bond is a verdict about the next thirty years, and the verdict is inflation. In the same session Bitcoin slipped to $81,000, its lowest in nearly three weeks, as oil jumped on Middle East headlines. Everything bought on borrowed money gets marked down together. Cheap credit teaches a system to carry more claims than it has savings. When the cost of holding those claims rises, the weakest ones go first. Not because sentiment turned. Because the arithmetic did. Nothing was repaired this week. Something was finally priced.
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