And Bitcoin has its tweeds around its ankles copping the proverbial bear pole in the ANOOS! 😫 69k to 87k 2021 - 2026 No bueno - no matter how you cook the books!

Replies (12)

Retail Only = 69k Billion dollar ETF balances Strategy stacking 700k Bitcoin XX1 entering the fray Record hash rate for BTC mining Metaplanet building a large BTC position Goldman Sachs entering the fray Fair accounting rule changes El Salvador holding the line UAE entering the fray IREN expanding big time Marathon stacking corn like crazy Bitcoin only hardware wallet sale records Saudi Arabia entering the fray Central African Republic going in Record Bitcoin wallet providers Coinbase going gang busters Binance off the hook and crushing Pakistan starting a national BTC reserve NOSTR going gangbusters Node runners embracing Knots Node runners embracing Core Solo miner record sales and implementation Stuck at 87k with all these tail winds??? For the last 4.2 years??? It fucking stinks to high hell. Rotten to the core. The math ain’t mathing…. Big time!
The measuring stick isn’t broken. Bitcoin is underperforming big time over the last 4.2 years. Avoiding the USD value conversation is head in the sand copium talk 101. Riddle me this: In Bitcoin only circular economies where sats is the standard the price of goods and services fluctuate by the minute why? 1700 sats for a taco one day… 1900 the next… Why? Because even in Bitcoin only circular economies the sats price moves in LOCKSTEP with the underlying fiat denomination. There is no escaping it. Avoiding this fact is not helpful and merely perpetuates the fantasy that the USD price has nothing to do with Bitcoin.
Agree
Resonance Cascade The II's avatar Resonance Cascade The II
Definitely, and anyone who says otherwise....please, point me to just a single past example where this didn't happen in human history with any other commodity?
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joeleao073 1 month ago
I’m not avoiding the USD conversation. I’m pointing out that switching monetary standards takes time, and that time is measured by adoption. A unit of account does not emerge overnight. Until there is real critical mass, prices will keep referencing the old system and volatility is unavoidable. Even Bitcoin-only circular economies still track fiat because fiat remains the dominant unit of account today. That is a symptom of an incomplete transition, not proof that Bitcoin is broken as money. Bitcoin being better money does not mean it wins automatically. Decoupling only happens once people understand why fiat is structurally flawed and choose to move away from it, not while pretending the transition is already finished. That is why educating people about money is so important.
Yes we all know that Bitcoin becoming the unit of account will take time. And we all know it’s not the unit of account. We all know that the USD is the current unit of account. That’s why it’s critically important to continue measuring Bitcoins performance in USD. Bitcoin is not broken. It’s functioning as it should. But it’s currently under performing (the NGU component) compared to other assets like gold and silver and it’s healthy to scrutinise Bitcoin by looking at its historical performance. 2013 - 2017 (cycle top to cycle top was 20 x! A great epoch :) 2017 - 2021 (cycle top to cycle top was 3.6x! A healthy epoch! 2021 - 2025 (cycle top to cycle top was a 1.8x! Not so good!) 2021 - NOW (last cycle top to current price is a 1.28x! Very shitty!)
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joeleao073 1 month ago
I tend to disagree. Measuring Bitcoin in something that is fundamentally rotten only casts a bad light on the measuring stick, not on Bitcoin itself. Imagine this: two or more large players control the majority of a fiat currency. They can trade the underlying asset among themselves and drive its fiat price effectively to whatever they want it to be. That does not mean the underlying asset is broken; it means the system that allows this behavior is. I understand what you’re trying to say, and for most of humanity this is the reality we live in today. However, once you see the rot and truly understand it, any rational thinking person should reject the system entirely. That includes pricing Bitcoin in USD. This again highlights that the real driver behind Bitcoin ultimately prevailing is adoption and education. The more people understand what’s happening, the more will opt out, and the more stable Bitcoin circular economies will become. NGU is fun and appealing in a fiat world, but if you actually want to escape fiat’s grip, you have to reject it completely. In my view, NGU’s main function is to attract new people, with the hope that they eventually see the rot for themselves and choose to opt out.
Of course you disagree 🫠 The fact that Fiat is rotten means nothing. It’s still the measuring stick of most things. Property = measured in Fiat Gold = measured in Fiat Rice = measured in Fiat Silver = measured in Fiat Wheat = measured in Fiat Iron Ore = measured in Fiat Cotton = measured in Fiat Rubber = measured in Fiat Coffee = measured in Fiat Cocoa = measured in Fiat Copper = measured in Fiat Aluminium = measured in Fiat Platinum = measured in Fiat Agricultural Machinery = measured in Fiat Weapons = measured in Fiat Just because Fiat is rotten and just because you choose not to use the measuring stick oh the world does not mean my premise is incorrect. It merely means you are avoiding the truth and avoiding reality.
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joeleao073 1 month ago
Accepting fiat while knowing what it is and what it does is, to me, accepting defeat. I’m doing the opposite. I see reality for what it is, and I don’t want that system for my children. I’m not avoiding the problem, I’m fighting it. Big difference. If no one pushes back against the system, the system will never change. You can choose to accept fiat, or tell yourself that Bitcoin can only succeed through NGU, but I choose to believe there is a better alternative. That belief is the hill I’m willing to die on.
Come on Joel! The holier than now ‘I’m here for the freedom’ trope is a well worn path and one I’ve heard many times for many years now inside the Bitcoin only space. I get it Joel. The Fiat system is broken. This is a well established fact that doesn’t need repeating or explaining - we get it. We all get it! This is NOSTR after all… Do you know what else I hate? Gravity. As you get older it fucks with your body. But I do know this and accept this: gravity does not give a single fuck about what the Bulgarian Pork Whistle believes about gravity! It exists, it’s here for the foreseeable future and not talking about it does not make it go away. NGU is Freedom. Freedom is NGU. They go hand in glove. Freedom = Buying a home 🏠 Freedom = Owning farmland 🌾 Freedom = Preserving your time and energy in abstracted form aka NGU with Bitcoin or Gold etc…. Freedom = Avoiding the pain of currency debasement Freedom = Having more today to cover tomorrow Freedom = Security and security has a cost Freedom and NGU are joined at the hip! Inseparable bed fellows in the context of MONEY! 💰 Remember Bitcoin is money which is powered by a network - not the other way around. NGU or Bitcoin go bye bye 👋
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joeleao073 1 month ago
We’re actually very close to agreeing and finding common ground. I’m certain we both want the same thing in the end: prosperity. I’m simply convinced that if Bitcoin succeeds, fiat becomes irrelevant. The path toward that end goal will almost certainly include NGU, that much is clear. But in the end state, the number itself stops mattering. Bitcoin is simply better money, and at that point people would naturally switch to it and start pricing goods and services in BTC. That’s why I say NGU isn’t the point. Once you’re convinced of Bitcoin’s end goal, the journey there will inevitably involve a USD price that goes through the roof. The only scenario where that doesn’t happen is if governments and central banks suddenly adopt sound money policies, and in my opinion, that’s not happening anytime soon.