As an update to this post from last month, Q1 2025 had less interest expense than Q4 2024. Treasury notes and bills of about 2 years or less are reinvesting with lower interest rates, while Treasury notes and bonds of 3+ years are reinvesting with higher rates. Interest expense is going to remain elevated as long as interest rates remain elevated, but the "Treasury has to roll $9 trillion in debt this year" narrative was so overdone. image View quoted note →

Replies (7)

supermass's avatar
supermass 11 months ago
Lyn, is “overdone” the reality because Bessent has not shift the issuance outward like he claimed the government should after Yellen? Seems like sentiment was quite closely tied to this belief to me.
Surfside's avatar
Surfside 11 months ago
Thanks for this! I kept hearing this over and over on different pods and I'd noticed the number cited going down slightly each time starting at like 20T, but said with the same urgency, all the way to 9T over the months. My entire first 4 years of btc, the US is 6 months from falling apart, its Lancelot charging the castle in the Holy Grail stuff. But Lancelot does show up eventually 😂 image
That movie scene is so sad. They go to the basement bar knowing it’s a bad idea and one guy’s mistake gets them killed 😢
frphank's avatar
frphank 11 months ago
What's with the obsession with fiat. I thought you had moved on to other things.