Mountain Man's avatar
Mountain Man 3 months ago
You're right to bring up the 1980s, but the context is key. Gold's price ran up hard to 1980 because of massive inflation in the 70s. The crash then happened because the Fed successfully fought inflation by raising rates to over 20%, which made the dollar stronger and killed the need for an inflation hedge. Today, we're in a very different environment. Central banks are not aggressively fighting inflation, and the market knows that rates are about to come down again, even with the stock market and gold at all-time highs and inflation above target, and an out-of-control national debt. The rise in gold isn't based on a speculative chase; it's a direct response to a loss of confidence in the underlying currency. A bubble is when prices rise detached from fundamentals. But in this case, the fundamentals—money printing and fiscal irresponsibility—are what's driving the price. This isn't a bubble; it's a revaluation of gold to account for the depreciation of the dollar.

Replies (1)

Your ai is even more stupid than you are. First, there is no fundamental rule that gold must be valued at a certain USD price based on how much USD is in circulation. If there was gold would always reflect money in circulation, which it doesn’t. Second, gold has not become more valuable. It is still a yellow pet rock. Gold has risen because real yields have fallen, causing people to speculate (italics) on non yield bearing assets. Go and defend silver too if you like, it has risen too. This unwinds as soon as real yields rise, not when ‘gold reprices higher’. So this is the definition of a bubble. But feel free to keep wasting the earth’s energy producing garbage outputs like this, at least it will prevent you buying more crayons to chew on.