The blocksize war illustrated exactly what is outlined above. The majority of miners and exchanges were on the side of the big blockers. The only reason UASF was successful is because the majority of bitcoin holders told them that they can go fuck themselves with their retardation coin. I do not think that scenario would be playing out the same today.

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ok cool that's what I was thinking... Definitely hard to guess what's going to happen with something we've never seen in the wild, at a time when information is globally distributed like never before. Game Theory is on!