I would say the liquidity needs to enter the system and still remain selling off. The money isn’t there and so it will continue to sell off until then.

I think regardless of any narrative (liquidity, bear market, etc) this is very normal Bitcoin spot price behavior. I guess nobody remembers when Bitcoin spot went from 106k to 76k over the course of 3 months last January-April. Lol

This is the weirdest thing for me, it was literally a bit more than 6 months ago!

All assets are a liquidity smoke alarm. It's just a matter of preference.

There is a vocal group who is sure the 4 year cycle will continue to repeat. It could, but it also very well could not. They are treating normal short term price action as confirmation of the cycle idea. Time will tell.

I’m not saying they’re right or wrong with this. (Personally I think they’re probably correct). I’d just like to know in advance what would falsify their hypothesis. Macro forecasters get away with too much because attention spans are short and it’s impossible to keep track of all of their opinions.

Agreed. There is so much macro slop that I just tune it all out now. I’ve heard them all say everything under the sun and be almost always wrong somehow. But I do think QE / increased liquidity / money printing and lower rates are the true catalysts for NGU (along with adoption) and the opposite conditions catalyze big sell offs. What would invalidate their liquidity thesis would have to be verifiable substantial liquidity entering the system and the sell off continuing right through it.