In general I agree. Except new coins are much less likely to be attacked, because people routinely use HD wallets these days, so long-range attacks wouldn’t work. There only the short-range attack targeting the funds while they’re in the mempool would be a concern.
It’s primarily old coins in wallets with long-exposed pubkeys that would be first attacked.
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Old ancient coins are not moving. Most of the sellside pressure comes from this cycle and last cycle holders.
It's not from coins being attacked and stolen.