Check is my favorite anything ever... Based on recent posts and analyses from CheckOnChain (led by analyst James Check, aka @_Checkmatey_ ), here's a breakdown of his views on recent Bitcoin market dynamics.Who Is Buying and Selling BTC LatelyCheckOnChain's analysis indicates that sellers have been dominated by existing Bitcoin holders, who continue to provide heavy sell-side pressure and act as the primary source of market resistance. This includes:Long-term holders (HODLers) who acquired BTC below $10k, accounting for about 10% of the supply change since November 2024. Buyers from the previous cycle (below $55k), making up 38%. 2024 "chop traders" (acquired between $55k and $73k), representing 62%—these are seen as a mix of traders and TradFi inflows. Overall, HODLers contribute about one-third of the selling, while traders and TradFi money account for two-thirds. @_Checkmatey_ Retail investors have been net sellers since 2023. @_Checkmatey_ Short-term holders (STHs) have recently flipped between profit-taking and loss-taking modes, often selling near their buy-in prices during dips, which signals weaker hands exiting. Existing holders in general (including older cohorts from 3+ years ago) are consistently selling for profit, with daily volumes that dwarf individual large buys (e.g., one entity sold 80k BTC in a single event). On the buying side, specifics are less detailed, but CheckOnChain emphasizes that demand has been absorbing enormous sell-side volumes without collapsing the price, which he views as a bullish signal. TradFi vehicles like ETFs (e.g., BlackRock's IBIT) and treasury-holding companies (e.g., MicroStrategy) are described as "tiny" compared to overall sell-side flows, representing only a small fraction of the market's absorption capacity. @_Checkmatey_ Stablecoins are highlighted as a form of liquid "dry powder" for buying, with their growth enabling easier inflows into BTC. newsletter.checkonchain.com Options markets (e.g., on IBIT) are also enabling institutional hedging and capital allocation, indirectly supporting buying by providing risk management tools. newsletter.checkonchain.com How Much Dry Powder Is Left to Sell"Dry powder left to sell" in this context appears to refer to remaining sell pressure, such as unrealized profits, underwater supply, or dense cost-basis clusters that could trigger more selling. CheckOnChain notes that sell-side remains "heavy" overall, with no signs of it becoming irrelevant anytime soon. @_Checkmatey_ Key metrics include:Bitcoin is currently trading in a dense value area where ~30% of the total supply (and 62% of the USD value invested) has a cost basis above $95k. This represents significant potential sell pressure if prices drop deeper into this zone, as it would increase unrealized losses and incentivize exits. newsletter.checkonchain.com Unrealized losses are currently minimal (e.g., only a small profile for coins acquired above $112k), but this could grow if momentum slows further. @_Checkmatey_ Overall unrealized value in loss is low (historically around 2-3% in bull phases), compared to bear markets where it spikes to 20%+. @_Checkmatey_ Exchanges perpetually hold ~2.3M BTC available for selling, a level that's remained consistent for years despite claims of depletion. @_Checkmatey_ Daily sell-side from long-term holders alone is around 3k-10k BTC, plus equivalent from short-term traders, underscoring ongoing pressure. @_Checkmatey_ No exact total figure is given for "dry powder left," but the emphasis is on this pressure being substantial and persistent, far outweighing isolated buys.His Understanding and Vision of the Bitcoin MarketCheckOnChain sees Bitcoin as a maturing asset class in a bull market, but one facing persistent headwinds from underestimated sell-side pressure rather than manipulation or "paper Bitcoin." He views the market through an on-chain lens, focusing on supply distribution, cost bases, and investor behavior to navigate volatility. Key pillars include:Demand as the counterforce: Every sold BTC is bought, and the market's ability to absorb 100x more expensive coins this cycle (vs. 2015-17) is "wildly bullish" long-term, signaling strong underlying capital inflows despite resistance. @_Checkmatey_ Maturation via derivatives: Options and other "paper" instruments are essential for institutional adoption, acting as an "insurance market" for hedging risks and enabling larger capital deployment. newsletter.checkonchain.com This is a natural evolution, with markets like IBIT options surpassing traditional crypto derivatives. Current phase: Momentum has slowed, with BTC struggling at the STH cost basis (~$113.6k) amid heavy selling. newsletter.checkonchain.com He holds two competing views: (1) dips into dense cost-basis zones could trigger "buy-the-dip" from bulls if losses aren't extreme, or (2) deeper falls might confirm a cyclical top, growing panic and unrealized losses. newsletter.checkonchain.com Short, sharp loss-taking by STHs (followed by recovery) is a classic bull signal. Overall vision: Bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory as it approaches gold-like market cap (~$20T at $1M/BTC), but realistic about volatility—sellers (especially holders) will always dominate resistance, and markets like mining or treasury firms may face forced sales in downturns. He advises mental preparation, pre-deciding actions for breakouts up or down, and views current pullbacks as "weak sauce" compared to historical bears.