FYI, there already exists a key revocation and replacement mechanism for Nostr. It is fully implemented at Inkan.
It's a prototype and has rough edges, but it works. I've been using it for several months now. It's open for testing - you can try it out now if you like. See below for screenshots.
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In other words, I disagree with the following sentence in your NIP draft:
"In decentralized systems such as Nostr, there is no [...] mechanism that can conclusively determine identity continuity after key loss or compromise."
Such a mechanism exists. It's been implemented at Inkan.
Where I can read about how it works? Spec, deps, how it is built etc?