I'm optimistic that the mitigating factors do their job too. People will partially figure out how to use AI and not be captured by it, run local models, use it productively and not delusionally, etc. But intelligent approaches seem pretty marginal compared with the hype right now. The capex itself seems like it will inevitably create a massive bubble that will pop when it comes up against the hard limits of energy.

But then how are you squaring that sentence with the one before about shovels not centralizing power.