Bitcoin just ran 40% off the July low and stalled at the 50-week. that’s the line. lose it and every bull since 2014 was over. hold it and every bear was over. the 200-day doesn’t close this. 2015 ripped through the 200-day, died at the 50-week, then made one more low. 2018 still maps. feb low, slightly lower summer low, 40% squeeze into the same average. 5700 then. 57k now. 2022 did the same bounce and failed. midterm years print these rallies inside a bear. nothing new. july 1 is when accumulation started. q4 still gets a vote. october keeps showing up. a few weekly closes above the 50-week and i stop being careful. until then the low isn’t confirmed. not here to call the wick. 2027 pays this either way.