After doing some research, here’s what I found. (All open to correction if there are errors) The upper bound for outputs per block is ~32k using P2WPKH batching. Which equates to 4.6M UTXOs per day, 138M month, 1.68B year. Using 120bytes per UTXO, that’s 16-18GB/month and 200-230GB/yr. Legacy P2PKH and taproot are somewhat less, but still 200GB and 150GB / year. Current UTXO set size is 12-13GB. Annual cost depends on fee rate. At 100 sat/vB, it’s 52,560BTC. At 500 sat/vB, it’s 262,800BTC. Or $10.5B and $52.6B at $200k/BTC.

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That’s if they went full blast. But the attack would be recognized and there would have to be a defense implemented quickly. But what if they didn’t go full blast and instead, did it slowly and surreptitiously. Then gaslit anyone who called it an attack. Tricked people into thinking they’re valid transactions. Muddied the waters about defining spam.